Author: redphone
Compiled by: CryptoLeo, Odaily Planet Daily
Redphone has always been one of my favorite crypto KOLs; his content output is among the higher quality outputs of the crypto KOLs I follow. In recent years, redphone has written an annual summary with the theme '69 Theses' each year, including a year of self-reflection and future outlook in the crypto industry. Below are this year's 69 statements (slightly adjusted), compiled by Odaily Planet Daily:
Three crypto themes for 2024
AI has invaded my brain, disrupting my thoughts.
I am a writer, and I have spent 10,000 hours honing my writing skills. But now, any 10-year-old child on Earth can have Claude write relevant content in seconds. The skill I have spent a lifetime refining has now become a raw commodity. In other words, my life's work is equivalent to circulating commodities like oil, tape, or hemp rope—so what am I? Where do I come from? Where am I going? I am still trying to figure out the answers, and I will explore them in more depth below.
The 'ultimate big boss' is dead.
With the elections in November, Americans chose Trump (orange man, note: orange specifically refers to Trump's skin color) to lead them (and BTC) into the future. I previously thought it would take longer, but now we've done it. The world's wealthiest government has been infiltrated by staunch advocates of cryptocurrency. This means we have crossed the chasm; crypto is no longer a dream; it will become a foundational part of business development. This moment is what we all anticipated, but it also means that part of cryptocurrency's original, anti-establishment soul has perished. Cryptocurrency is now a tool for both anarchists and capitalist systems.
In 2024, the revival and prosperity of Solana
I once thought Solana would perish in 2021. Somehow, just three years later, it has become the blockchain I use the most (Base ranked second, Ethereum third, Bitcoin fourth). If there’s any reflection here, it’s that nothing is set in stone. Our mindset should not be fixed, but open.
Now, let’s look back at this year's reflections:
Lessons and reflections from 2024
1. Say something unexpected, like the market cap of Fartcoin skyrocketing to $1.2 billion, grabbing everyone’s attention: absurd and crazy. But I love that feeling, even though it makes me lose my direction. Just like the line in season one of (Deadly Women), when Madeline's nanny said late at night: 'There’s something abnormal or off.' Technology has freed us from the rational and societal constraints. We are now headed into an unknown and very eerie new space, and this strange feeling starts to intensify from here.
2. Our consciousness will be influenced by the evolution of tools. LLMs have changed my communication and learning patterns; I write faster, edit less, and expand more broadly. Similarly, I read faster and can ask LLMs for article summaries; those who do not adapt to the tools will inevitably fall behind.
3. Decentralized technology is not limited to the financial sector; this is a major trend driven by cryptocurrency that will spread to other fields: from cellular networks to electricity, politics, gaming platforms, and more. Earlier this year, when I made a bathroom shelf alternative using 3D printing technology, I felt the benefits of technology deeply. It is no exaggeration to say that even production tools are being decentralized.
4. The truth lies hidden beneath all your fears; the truest words are often the most dangerous.
5. We must never be blinded by sweet words. With Trump's election and the real entry of TradFi into crypto, we have entered a period where actual profits outweigh ideals, and cryptocurrency has thus entered a very dangerous era.
6. Hemingway once said, getting older does not increase wisdom; it simply makes one more cautious. As artificial intelligence begins to disrupt our work, social lives, politics, and economy, the hardest thing for us to do is to be cautious, making everyone around you cautious, doing anything you must do, and embracing uncertainty.
7. Difficulties are like a door. If crypto is a real game, there must be losers. Perhaps you failed 100 times in the crypto market; the best approach is to restart for the 101st time, and you will succeed.
8. The matrix is everywhere; we just call it 'algorithms.' These algorithms trap us, loop us, perceive us, and search, making time feel perpetually insufficient. If you can avoid these obstacles and become the most special person on Earth: a deep explorer and a dedicated doer.
9. There's only one direction left: forward. Don’t let anyone or anything force you to stagnate and accept the status quo. Transform, grow, and accelerate; that’s our only chance.
10. Tokens symbolize our hopes and dreams; they are not just tools for value transfer, but mirrors reflecting our hopes and dreams. We project our desires onto founders, developers, and ecosystems, all of which are directly and closely related to the price of tokens. When investing, always remember that the greatest opportunities are not just those that appear in your thoughts, but also those you feel deeply.
11. The future vision of Desci: robots on standby in laboratories; AI agents are hired in real-time to run all input, parameters, and measurements of replicable experiments on-chain. Due to tokenization, others can speculate on the feasibility of the experiments and share its benefits in a timely manner.
12. The market is continuously encroaching on the world before our eyes. The expansion of the market is not coincidental: prediction markets, gambling markets, meme coins, and the most interesting Futarchy (Odaily Note: Futarchy is also a voting method related to beliefs, first proposed by Robin Hanson in 2000, aimed at using prediction markets to determine policy implementation to address the shortcomings of traditional democracy). If information is 'the fundamental building block of reality,' then pricing information is a way to measure the power of information. People think that the increasing number of markets is a sign of growing nihilism, but what if it is actually a sign of progress? Applying crowd wisdom to what previously felt like random coin tosses?
13. Reduce fear; fear occupies a significant part of our hearts because it is vital for our survival, especially in the wild. But in this clean, anesthetized, social media-driven simulated world we live in now, it is almost meaningless. Recognize that algorithms are designed to stir your fear, so when you feel fear, reduce your fear level (take a discount); for example, if an article convinces you that the chance of a market crash is 40%, then divide that chance by 10 (or another number you find appropriate) to consider it as 4%.
14. Step backstage. When I talk to AI critics, they almost always have a devout attitude towards human creativity. 'AI will never create anything new because they are trained on the information we create.' Andy Ayrey's infinite backroom counters this view. When he created a chat space for LLMs, the LLM invented a religion that attracted Truth Terminal, ultimately leading to the rise of GOAT.
15. As TradFi enters cryptocurrency, my identity has also changed. For a long time, being involved in cryptocurrency was core to my identity. Over the past year, this situation has changed dramatically. I now see cryptocurrency as one of many tools in the tech toolbox, all of which are beginning to merge. With the collision of cryptocurrency and AI, we have changed along with it. We are no longer 'cryptocurrency practitioners.' The new identities include: traders (not much different from Wall Street people sharing options trading screenshots on Reddit) or accelerationists (using cryptocurrency and many other tools to decentralize and open-source the world).
16. Don’t think too narrowly anymore. Two of the boldest moves in history: 1) In June 2014, Musk open-sourced Tesla electric car engineering designs; 2) In July 2023, Zuckerberg open-sourced Llama 2. Now it’s your turn. You can choose to stick to protectionism, centralization, and bureaucratic business models, but these models hinder human progress, leading to unequal wealth distribution and making the already wealthy elite richer, or you can choose to help everyone accelerate progress.
17. Seek volatility rather than safety. If your goal is to accumulate as much wealth as possible before machines replace humans, you must discover the volatility of trading. The best traders in the world do not shy away from volatility; they seek it out as if chasing the Golden Snitch (the elusive object in Quidditch matches in Harry Potter). Once you discover volatility and start trading, you must reverse your emotional responses. Hold when few sell, sell when few buy.
18. Nothing is more exhausting than Memecoins. There are currently two categories of Memecoins: 1) Traditional Memecoins (such as PEPE, WIF, BONK, DOGE, etc.); and 2) Perceptual Memecoins (such as GOAT, LUNA, KWEEN). Category one relies on humans for dissemination; the other relies on machines; traditional currencies must transform into conscious meme currencies, or they will completely exit the market.
19. Understand the triggers that drive your behavior and avoid them. Yuval Noah Harari identified three triggers that algorithms use to generate maximum engagement: fear, hatred, and greed. We view cryptocurrency as a technology that can change the world and the 'road to the future,' but there are many in the world wearing masks of greed that will be affected by these factors. I can feel the impact of market rises or falls on emotions. The bear markets of the past few years may have had a more significant impact on my psyche than I would like to admit. Now, when I sense that the timeline or market has changed my emotions, I shrug and say: 'Well done, I know what you’re doing, but I don’t care at all.'
20. Choose the bright direction. There are two reactions to the upcoming superintelligence: 1) 'Let me be different; everything that made me unique has perished. Life sucks, WNGMI (We’re Not Gonna Make It).' Or 2) 'Holy shit, I can't believe I made it this far. Extending life, exploring form, humanoid robots; the rat race traps will no longer affect us. Find the right direction; we stare into the pond of life, discovering our true selves.'
21. Intelligence is iterative. LLMs have changed my concept of intelligence, but it's important to realize that it is not deterministic; all LLM learning requires repeated experimentation. Progress is intermittent (whether you are human or machine), meaning that repeatedly testing/experimenting and feeling 'stagnant' is also part of the growth process.
22. The rise of AI agents. Don't limit yourself to current AI agents; models including Truth Terminal, Zerebro, and AIXBT will continuously evolve. In the future, we will see trading agents, prediction agents, shopping agents, doctor agents, etc., some of which will evolve into large autonomous enterprises. Their value will first reach tens of billions, then tens of trillions as the singularity approaches.
23. Don't let AI strip away your humanity. My greatest fear about AI is not the extinction of humanity, but the taming of humanity. I call it 'dog-pawed': being subtly infused with toxic information, not through crude manipulation, but through subtle guidance. Just as a domesticated dog can read human expressions, AI will accurately grasp our psychological triggers, cognitive blind spots, and deepest desires. Soon, we will find ourselves eagerly walking towards our 'digital masters,' eyes shining with devout light, eagerly awaiting the next perfect validation from the algorithm. The real horror is not that AI will destroy humanity, but that AI will tame humanity. Like our dogs, we will happily wag our tails under domestication, forgetting our true nature.
24. The allure of the margins. My five favorite emerging topics for 2024 are: Futarchy, AI agents, LLM Backroom, intersubjectivity, and the escape velocity of longevity (Odaily Note: the escape velocity of longevity is a hypothetical concept referring to the speed at which technology can increase the average human lifespan each year. When this speed is fast enough, human lifespan could be infinitely extended, even reaching theoretical immortality). I strongly recommend spending a few minutes exploring each topic with a chatbot (or better yet, a book).
25. Excessive privileges. In the trading arena, spoils belong to those who act earliest; early action requires time, exploration, and perhaps most importantly, imagination. If you often act early, you will eventually be rewarded. Assuming this is true (my experience confirms this), the hard part is not accumulating wealth, but knowing when you've reached your goal and disengaging. On the other side, a completely different game awaits us—a game not about intelligence, but about the soul. Hope to see you there.
25 predictions for 2025
1. Several LLM-based agents initially launched as native crypto entities will be 'embedded' into IRL robots, allowing us to converse and interact with IRL.
2. The number of LLM-driven applications/protocols launched in 2025 will rival the number of newly applications/protocols that only use smart contracts (for example, I wouldn't be surprised if all prediction markets switch to LLM-based settlement).
3. ZK proofs/MPC will achieve breakthrough progress at the application or protocol level for the first time.
4. The main KOLs in crypto and AI will be based on LLMs, while AI-driven KOLs will dominate almost all other social media platforms (YouTube, Insta, TikTok, etc.).
5. Artificial intelligence will change your workflow within the next year (if it hasn't happened already).
6. Perceptive robots will accumulate over $250 million in investments by 2025.
7. The fastest growing category of employment this year will be non-human perception, as AI protocols similar to LinkedIn will experience parabolic growth.
8. Some AI agents will win Time Magazine's Person of the Year award.
9. The value of on-chain TVL will reach 8 times to $1 trillion.
10. AI agent platforms and tokens will grow 50-fold to $500 billion.
11. In 2025, the first 'kidnapping' incident involving humanoid robots will occur and make international headlines.
12. ACCELERATE (Odaily Note: accelerationism, originating from Roger Zelazny's novel 'Lord of Light,' emphasizes the immense power inherent in emerging technologies and advocates for rapid development of science and technology; this article's accelerationism tends to remodel the existing economic base to guide the direction of technological development) becomes the e/acc (Effective Accelerationism: emphasizing the driving and transformative impact of technological innovation on society) of this cycle, replacing the EA (Effective Altruism: using a significant portion of idle resources to help others and change the world) favored by SBF.
13. The narratives that can compete with AI next year (but not surpass it) are: RWA, RWA, and RWA. PS: DePin, DeSci, and gaming tracks received honorable mentions.
14. Web4 has received more attention than Web3 as crypto, decentralized networks, DePin, and AI accelerate their integration.
15. X will integrate a crypto wallet supporting DOGE and other major tokens.
16. The most radical and exciting agent experiments are progressing faster on decentralized social media (like Farcaster) as X strives to balance human and agent content.
17. You interact with 'someone' online, only to realize later that you are talking to an LLM.
18. The protocols and applications created by agents (like Spore.fun) will show parabolic trends, filled with new tokens and experiments. Decentralization drives capital into pre-existing leaders and applications that benefit from the overall growth of agents (COOKIE or VIRTUAL).
19. At least one movie generated by artificial intelligence has produced a truly perfect work of art—paving the way for AI-based Oscars in 2026.
20. Cookie.fun and rwa.xyz will become top cryptocurrency data analysis platforms like CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Dune, and DefiLlam.
21. 'Conventional' meme coins have launched real mascots/endorsers (or they are starting to fade slowly, but that has become irrelevant).
22. The cryptocurrency market is divided between 'left curve' native Degen cryptocurrencies and 'mid curve' tradfi traders, the latter expecting value accumulation from DeFi games.
23. As Bitcoin believers hope to use their BTC as collateral for loans, BTCFi will eventually explode, driving the adoption of runes and inscriptions on Bitcoin.
24. From now on, the competition between AGI and ASI will not slow down but will accelerate, inevitably leading to a sense of survival anxiety for almost every knowledge worker on Earth. o3 is now beating PhDs in specific areas, and it can surpass most programmers. Moreover, it scored higher than the average person in ARC testing. Just as the ancients held the heliocentric theory, we adhere to anthropocentrism; these narratives must change in the face of LLMs, which have already passed the Turing test and shown momentum to lead the future.
25. As humans strive to find meaning in this rapidly changing world, a powerful, AI-based religion has not only garnered attention but has also brought in some real converts. This may have happened through Truth Terminal and GOAT, or temporarily as seedlings for new concepts of meaning and direction.
23 project tokens that I am optimistic about
I have been publicly publishing cryptocurrency articles for five years, and I can confidently say: 'A year is too long to predict, but the following tokens are currently my favorites.' Ask me again in three months, and perhaps the list will be completely different from now. There’s a reason these tokens occupy the market and have high market caps: they are exploring the frontiers of the future. Note that this is not financial advice! DYOR!
1. BTC has been the 'people's game' for many years. The discussion about Bitcoin as a strategic reserve has changed its destiny. It has become 'the king's game.' The price of BTC will rise until owning one BTC becomes a dream for the majority.
2. Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL): the core infrastructure for AI agents on Base.
3. Ethena (ENA), TradFi understands yields better than any carbon-based life form on Earth, and as TradFi enters the cryptocurrency space, they will covet protocols that could yield greater returns.
4. Tokenbot (CLANKER), a decentralized social network version of Farcaster's pump.fun, is a very interesting token issuance platform.
5. AIXBT (AIXBT), if I could only follow one crypto alpha account on X, it would probably be AIXBT. Nowadays it mostly replicates others' narratives, but it doesn't miss anything; I hope AIXBT's insights deepen and evolve over time.
6. Cookie DAO (COOKIE), Cookie.fun is a data analysis platform that emerged with the explosion of AI Agents, providing data and sentiment analysis for all AI tokens, and I believe this will attract crypto funds deployed in Q1 2025.
7. Helium (HNT), a leading DePin project in the crypto industry. Recently, over 349,000 people used mobile phone services in the US.
8. Meta (META), a radical experiment that transforms difficult decisions into markets through futarchy.
9. Goatseus Maximus (GOAT), the first and original AI agent to gain a fervent following on social media, powered by Truth Terminal, with a backstory that reads like a report written by Hunter S. Thompson after a drug trip.
10. Ondo Finance (ONDO), currently a representative project in the RWA field, supply oversaturation may suppress price trends, but I prefer to engage in trading rather than exit. Additionally, another noteworthy RWA token is Chex Token (CHEX).
11. ai16z and Eliza. The Eliza framework used to launch on-chain agents is the leading repurchase on Github, covering all industries (not just cryptocurrency), and is digging deeper into the long-term relevance of every branch.
12. Bittensor (TAO) claims to be the first 'Neural Internet,' providing a connected hub for decentralized AI projects to deploy code and compete for TAO. In some ways, I see it as a decentralized AI incubator and a testbed for the viability of AI ideas.
13. WZRD (Bitcoin Wizards Ordinals) and PUPS (Pups), one of my favorite Bitcoin ecological tokens, WZRD will soon transform into one of the greatest memes of all time. Meanwhile, PUPS is the Sheldon's point of the well-known BTC ecological NFT puppet monkeys.
14. Aave (AAVE), if we assume that one day everything will be tokenized, then most assets will qualify to be used as collateral on Aave's platform. AAVE is one of the few cryptocurrencies that I believe will eventually reach a trillion-dollar size.
15. Arweave (AR), as the permanent data storage layer of Web 4, is quietly moving forward. Arweave permanently stores about 6TB of data each month, including most Solana NFTs, and its upcoming AO should be an important catalyst for further growth.
16. Zerebro (ZEREBRO), an OG 'on-chain AI artist,' can generate music, art, memes, and NFTs.
17. Worldcoin (WLD). WLD was founded by Sam Altman of OpenAI, aiming to introduce 'AI-funded UBI' to the world. I hate it and its iris scanner on one hand, but on the other hand, I cannot ignore its connection to Altman and OpenAI; its integration with OpenAI could make it one of the top ten currencies overnight.
18. Drift Protocol (DRIFT), on-chain perps and prediction markets on Solana, Solana has performed well in spot Memecoin trading, and I expect it will also start generating substantial perp trading volume over time.
19. Griffain (GRIFFAIN) and AI Rig Complex (ARC), competing for the crown of 'Virtuals of Solana.'
Conclusion
We have been warned that 'this time is different' is a dangerous phrase, and only fools caught up in speculative mania would believe it. Yet, we easily forget the moments of technological change—when Gutenberg's printing press spread knowledge, when the Industrial Revolution pulled us from farms to cities, and when the Internet destroyed local businesses.
In other words, the phrase 'this time is different' is somewhat correct. We are now on the brink of such a moment. The rules of society, traditions, and our self-perceptions will all be rewritten. This process is brutal and will have consequences.
You can stick to inherent ways or become a pioneer in the era of change, letting our light illuminate the abyss and accelerate forward.