Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering the week's key news, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This article is one of the news weekly, taking you through this week's blockchain industry events.
Headlines
▌Two former cryptocurrency exchange FTX executives received reduced sentences
According to the Washington Post, the sentences of two former cryptocurrency exchange FTX executives appear to have been shortened. According to the website of the U.S. Federal Bureau of Prisons, Ryan Salame, who began serving a sentence of 7 and a half years in October, is now expected to be released in March 2031. Caroline Ellison's expected release date is now July 2026, a few months less than her original two-year sentence. FTX filed for bankruptcy in 2022 due to questions about its financial situation and its relationship with sister trading company Alameda Research, which led to customers withdrawing funds rapidly, similar to a bank run. Authorities later accused FTX of misappropriating customer funds for personal use, to repay loans owed by Alameda Research and other projects. The scandal brought a stunning defeat to FTX, once the world's third-largest cryptocurrency exchange, and its founder Bankman (SBF). Salam, the former co-CEO of FTX's Bahamas subsidiary, admitted to operating an unlicensed money transmission business and violating campaign finance laws. Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda, pleaded guilty in December 2022 to wire, securities and commodities fraud and money laundering.
▌Musk: The Federal Reserve is seriously overstaffed
Musk wrote on social media platform X that the Fed, which is responsible for protecting the world's largest economy, is "tremendously overstaffed." The comments came amid a series of discussions sparked by a post about the Fed's latest policy decision.
▌US media: Some large US banks plan to sue the Federal Reserve over annual stress tests
According to CNBC, a person familiar with the matter revealed that several large banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve over the annual bank stress test. The person said that the lawsuit is expected to be filed this week, possibly as early as Tuesday morning local time. The Federal Reserve's stress test is an annual routine that requires banks to reserve sufficient buffer funds for bad loans and stipulates the scale of stock buybacks and dividends. After the close of Monday this week, the Federal Reserve announced in a statement that it plans to adjust the bank stress test, but it did not detail the specific adjustments to the annual stress test framework. But these adjustments may not be enough to eliminate banks' concerns about heavy capital requirements. Because the Federal Reserve said: "These proposed adjustments are not intended to have a substantial impact on overall capital requirements." Greg Bell, CEO of the Bank Policy Institute (BPI), which represents large banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, welcomed the Fed's statement. He said in a statement: "The Federal Reserve's statement today is the first step towards transparency and accountability." However, Bell also hinted that further action may be taken: "We are carefully studying this statement and considering other measures to ensure timely reforms that are both legal and policy-compliant."
▌Data: Only 7 of the 25 listed mining companies will achieve positive returns by the end of 2024
As of December 24, Bitcoin is up 113% in 2024. According to Hash Rate Index and Google Finance, most listed mining companies are in a downtrend by the end of 2024, with a drop of up to 84%. Of the 25 listed mining companies in the index, only seven have achieved positive returns. As of press time, Bitdeer (BTDR) is up 167%, Cipher (CIFR) is up 33%, Hut 8 (HUT) is up 91%, Iris Energy (IREN) is up 72%, Northern Data (NB2) is up 58%, Core Scientific (CORZQ) is up 327%, and TeraWulf (WULF) is up 169%. On the other hand, Argo Blockchain (ARB) is down 84%, followed by Sphere 3D (ANY) at 69%, (to name a few). Bitcoin miners have accumulated revenues of more than $71 billion. According to Blockchain.com, miners earned $42 million on December 22, compared to a peak of more than $100 million in April.
▌Analyst: Cryptocurrency venture capital may exceed $18 billion in 2025
According to PitchBook analyst Robert Le, venture capital in the crypto industry could exceed $18 billion in 2025, with multiple quarters of investment reaching $5 billion. Total crypto venture capital in 2023 is expected to be about $9 billion, and is expected to reach $11 billion in 2024, with an average quarterly investment of about $2 billion to $2.5 billion. Although investment activity slowed this summer, it rebounded after the election, and general venture capital firms are expected to refocus on the crypto sector next year. Le also pointed out that the investment theme of "crypto and artificial intelligence (AI)" will continue to heat up, and crypto technology may provide innovative solutions to certain core problems during the expansion of AI, or become a new growth point.
policy
▌The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a report on high-risk transactions such as illegal cross-border financial activities involving virtual currencies
On December 27, according to the announcement of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the (Measures for the Administration of Bank Foreign Exchange Risk Transaction Report (Trial)) has been issued and will be implemented from now on. The (Measures) is a supporting document for the (Measures for the Administration of Bank Foreign Exchange Business (Trial)), which aims to strengthen the foreign exchange risk management of banks and conduct early identification, early warning and early disposal of high-risk transactions such as suspected false trade, underground banks, and illegal cross-border financial activities of virtual currencies. The main contents include: clarifying the reporting responsibilities of banks for foreign exchange risk transactions, requiring the establishment of a monitoring system and submitting reports; stipulating the scope of information reporting, including activities suspected of illegal and irregular cross-border capital flows; clarifying the content of the report, such as basic information and measures to be taken; strengthening internal management measures, including internal control systems and data confidentiality management.
▌Russian Finance Minister: Digital currency for international payments represents the future trend
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday that Russian companies have begun using Bitcoin and other digital currencies in international payments after legislative changes allowed them in response to Western sanctions. This year, Russia allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade and has taken steps to legalize the mining of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. Russia is one of the world's leading countries in Bitcoin mining. "Such transactions are already taking place. We believe that such transactions should be further expanded and developed. I believe that this will be the case next year," Siluanov said, adding that the use of digital currencies for international payments represents a future trend.
▌The U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS finalize tax reporting requirements for certain cryptocurrency brokers
According to market news, the U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS have finalized the tax reporting requirements for specific cryptocurrency brokers (RIN 1545-BR39, TD 10021). The Biden administration's progress in developing this regulatory system has been delayed due to the cryptocurrency industry's resistance to tracking transactions.
▌The U.S. crypto industry calls on Congress to block new regulations for DeFi brokers
On December 27, the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announced new regulations that define some decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols as brokers and require them to fulfill customer identification (KYC) obligations, sparking strong opposition from the crypto industry. The regulation is expected to affect up to 875 DeFi brokers and 2.6 million taxpayers. Legal experts criticized the rule for allegedly exceeding authority and possibly infringing constitutional rights. Paradigm Vice President Alexander Grieve called on the new "pro-crypto Congress" to pass the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to repeal the rule. The Blockchain Association called the rule "a last-ditch attempt to push the U.S. crypto industry overseas" and said it would take action to fight it. It was previously reported that the IRS required "DeFi brokers" to collect user transaction information.
▌CryptoQuant founder: Trump’s Bitcoin policy depends on the economic status of the United States
Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, said that President-elect Donald Trump's Bitcoin policy may depend on the global investment community's view of the US economy and the strength of the US dollar. Ju believes that when investors believe that the US economic hegemony is threatened, the price of value-storing assets such as gold and BTC will soar. However, investors continue to express confidence in the US economy and regard the US dollar as a safe haven currency. This dominant position makes it unlikely that the Trump administration will adopt a strategic reserve of Bitcoin to protect the dominance of the US dollar and may cause the president-elect to backtrack on his pro-Bitcoin policies.
Blockchain Applications
▌World Network’s global participating users exceed 20 million
According to World's official statement, as of December, World Network has more than 20 million global participants, of which about 9.5 million are verified real users, covering all continents except Antarctica. There are 800,000 new users per week, 355,000 verified users, and more than 8 million active World App users per month, which is equivalent to a new user joining every 0.75 seconds. With the rapid development of AI technology, "Proof of Human" is becoming a key technology to deal with the online identity trust crisis. According to Stanford University's 2024 AI Index report, 52% of Americans are concerned about AI products, and 66% believe that AI will have a significant impact on their lives within 3-5 years.
▌Lido releases Ethereum staking SDK, supports cross-chain staking function integration
Lido announced the launch of the Ethereum Staking SDK, a TypeScript tool library for building off-chain integrations. The SDK allows developers to seamlessly integrate Lido staking functionality into off-chain applications, providing core functionality such as staking, reward tracking, withdrawals, and packaging. The newly released SDK features multi-chain support, allowing staking/unstaking operations on networks such as OP Mainnet without cross-chain. The tool includes pre-built methods and complete documentation, and can be used to develop DeFi protocols, dashboards, or new staking products.
▌Bio Protocol announces 2025 roadmap, will launch new BIO Launchpad, etc.
Decentralized science (DeSci) management and liquidity protocol Bio Protocol announced its 2025 roadmap, including: BIO tokens will undergo a TGE on the Ethereum mainnet on January 3; BIO tokens will be listed on Solana and Base networks; new BioDAO is launched; BIO/BioDAO liquidity pool; new BIO Launchpad is officially launched.
▌Forbes predicts seven major trends in the crypto industry in 2025
Forbes published an article predicting seven major trends in the crypto industry in 2025: 1. The G7 or BRICS countries will establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve; 2. The market value of stablecoins will double to US$400 billion; 3. The Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem will achieve rapid growth with the help of L2 networks (such as Stacks, BOB, Babylon), and the locked volume is expected to exceed the current US$24 billion of cross-chain packaged Bitcoin; 4. Crypto ETF products will expand to tracks such as Ethereum staking and Solana; 5. Technology giants such as Apple and Microsoft may follow Tesla's example and increase their holdings of Bitcoin; 6. The total market value of the crypto market will exceed US$8 trillion; 7. The improvement of the US regulatory environment will drive the revival of crypto entrepreneurship.
▌Crypto mining company HIVE Digital invests $30 million to deploy Nvidia chip cluster
Crypto mining company HIVE Digital Technologies (NASDAQ: HIVE) announced the deployment of a new batch of NVIDIA GPU clusters in Quebec. The total investment of the project is US$30 million, including 248 H100 GPUs (32 nodes) and 508 H200 GPUs (64 nodes). The H100 cluster will be put into operation by the end of 2024, and the annualized revenue of HPC business is expected to reach US$15 million in the next quarter; the H200 cluster will arrive in January 2025 and is scheduled to be deployed in the second quarter of 2025, with an expected annualized revenue of more than US$20 million. HIVE Executive Chairman Frank Holmes said that the revenue potential of 10 MW of HPC NVIDIA chips to serve AI needs is equivalent to 100 MW of Bitcoin mining revenue.
Cryptocurrency
▌Last week, Ethereum NFT transaction volume rose to US$186 million, a three-month high
According to data from The Block, Ethereum NFT trading volume rose to $186 million last week, a three-month high, up 67% from $111 million the previous week. The Pudgy Penguins series was the main catalyst for the craze after the release of its PENGU token, which generated $108 million in trading volume. The trading price of a single Pudgy Penguin once exceeded 29 ETH, but fell rapidly after the token was issued. Bitcoin is the second largest NFT ecosystem, with a weekly trading volume of only $33 million.
▌Goldman Sachs CEO: Many regulated US banks cannot touch cryptocurrencies, and it is still unclear how regulation will evolve
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon noted at a recent Reuters conference that many regulated U.S. banks still can’t touch cryptocurrencies. “How the regulatory framework will evolve is anyone’s guess, but it’s still unclear how the regulatory framework will evolve,” Solomon added. Currently, there is still speculation about how long it will take for the first crypto bill to pass the House and Senate, and before Trump.
▌Telegram founder: Total revenue this year exceeds $1 billion
Telegram founder Pavel Durov posted on his personal TG channel that the number of Telegram Premium subscribers has tripled this year to more than 12 million, and advertising revenue has increased several times. In addition, Telegram's total revenue in 2024 exceeded $1 billion, and its cash reserves at the end of the year exceeded $500 million, excluding crypto assets. In the past four years, Telegram has issued about $2 billion in debt.
▌Coinbase report: The total market value of stablecoins has increased by 48% since the beginning of 2024
A report from Coinbase shows that the total market value of stablecoins has increased by 48% since the beginning of 2024.
▌Two whales increased their holdings by 4.47 million ai16z
According to Lookonchain monitoring, 2 whales are hoarding ai16z. AVLKwK...x1Mv spent 3.71 million USDC to buy 2.96 million ai16z at about $1.253 today. 65FwXv...T4HE spent 10,000 SOL ($1.88 million) to buy 1.51 million ai16z at about $1.247 today.
Important economic developments
▌The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year is 87.2%
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year is 87.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 12.8%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by March next year is 50.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 44.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.4%.
▌VanEck: Bitcoin reserve strategy may reduce US debt by 35%, offsetting about $42 trillion in debt
Asset management firm VanEck says the U.S. national debt could be reduced by 35% over the next 24 years if it builds a reserve of 1 million bitcoins, as proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis. VanEck’s estimate assumes that Bitcoin will grow at a 25% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to $42.3 million in 2049, while the U.S. national debt will climb at a 5% CAGR from $3.7 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion over the same period. ‘By 2049, the reserve could account for 35% of the national debt, offsetting approximately $42 trillion in liabilities,’ Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz said in a Dec. 20 report.
▌Wall Street: Forecasts that the 2-year US Treasury yield will fall by 50 basis points next year
Despite looming threats to the bond market from President-elect Trump's trade and tax policies, Wall Street is taking its cue from the Federal Reserve in forecasting lower short-term Treasury yields in 2025. Strategists were mostly unanimous in their forecasts for a decline in the 2-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the Fed's interest rate policy. They see yields falling at least 50 basis points from current levels 12 months from now. The median forecast of 12 strategists is that the 2-year Treasury yield will fall about 50 basis points to 3.75% in a year. For the longer-term 10-year Treasury, strategists see yields, which were about 4.52% last Friday, reaching 4.25% by the end of 2025, about 25 basis points below current levels.
▌The Korean won exchange rate fell below 1,480 won to the dollar, the lowest since 2009
On December 27, the won-dollar exchange rate in Seoul's foreign exchange market broke through 1,480 won to the dollar. Previously, the Korean won continued to fall due to political turmoil in South Korea. On December 19, the won-dollar exchange rate opened at 1,453.0 won to the dollar in Seoul's foreign exchange market, setting the lowest won-dollar exchange rate since March 2009. (Jinshi)
▌The dollar index has risen more than 7% so far this year, its best performance since 2015
The dollar is headed for its best annual performance in nearly a decade as a stronger U.S. economy dampened expectations for a Fed rate-cutting cycle and President-elect Donald Trump's threats of tough tariffs supported bullish bets on the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Index is up more than 7% so far this year, its best performance since 2015. All developed currencies weakened against the dollar as other central banks had to step in to support their economies.
