Welcome to follow (The Bitcoin Daily of Jiujiao), an eight-year veteran in the market, a column writer for Babit, and a content writer for Binance! Teaching you to observe crypto logically.
Today, we will discuss the following topics:
Latest dynamics of Bitcoin market
Why is Ethereum so weak, and when will it rebound?
Alright, enough small talk, let's dive directly into today's analysis.
Bitcoin Market Analysis: Why do we need to wait for the breakout of the consolidation range?
In the past few days, I have been reminding everyone that Bitcoin's market may enter a correction phase. As early as three days ago, I judged through my trading system that Bitcoin is currently under downward pressure, suppressed by downward crossover signals in the system. Therefore, I was not eager to catch the bottom but chose to take some profits and wait for the breakout of the market consolidation range.
So, why wait for the breakout of the consolidation range? This is actually a key market principle. Many friends may not be very familiar with candlestick charts, or even if they understand some aspects, they may not fully grasp the essence of the trends behind them. Simply put, market trends are essentially composed of fluctuations and consolidations.
When the market fluctuates up and down within a range, we usually call it a consolidation range. Such consolidation ranges are common; for example, from March to August 2024, the market was in a consolidation state until October 2024, when it broke through this range, and the price directly rose from 60,000 to 100,000.
Currently, the Bitcoin price is in the range of 90,000 to 100,000, and this range is also consolidating. Due to the year-end holiday factors, the market may experience a short-term stagnation, but once the consolidation range is broken, whether upwards or downwards, a directional fluctuation will occur.
I have already conducted data analysis on this, and I will release a dedicated video later to discuss how to seize market opportunities during the Spring Festival and after.
Ethereum's Weak Performance: When will we see a market rebound?
Next, let's talk about Ethereum. On August 27 of this year, a fan asked me in the senior group: 'When will Ethereum see a market?' At that time, my answer was: Under normal circumstances, Ethereum's market will see an explosion in 2025.
Why do I say this? We can look at the exchange rate chart between Ethereum and Bitcoin. This chart visually reflects the strength relationship between Ethereum and Bitcoin. Typically, I use this chart to determine signals for Ethereum's rise.
From the chart, we can see that Ethereum has been in a downward channel; however, since September, it has not only broken through the downward channel but also accelerated downwards, indicating that investor sentiment for Ethereum may have become more pessimistic, leading to selling. As Buffett said, 'I am fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.' In this state of panic, it is actually a moment when the potential opportunities for Ethereum increase.
Let's review the upward trend of Ethereum in 2021. In January 2021, there was a clear upward slope, which was a signal of initiation. If history repeats itself, then in the first quarter of next year, Ethereum may see a good performance.
So, why did Ethereum perform weakly when the overall market was doing well previously? I believe there are several reasons:
Major upgrade in March 2024: Although the upgrade of Ethereum is highly anticipated, the performance after the upgrade did not meet expectations, leading to a decline in market confidence.
Impact of ETFs: Although Ethereum has also welcomed the guidance of ETFs, unlike Bitcoin, the continuous selling pressure from Grayscale has resulted in a lack of rebound momentum in the market.
Market focus shift: This year's hot topics have been focused on meme coins, with the main battleground for meme coins being Solana. Although there are some meme coins on Ethereum, they haven't attracted as much attention as those on Solana, leading to relatively low interest in Ethereum.
However, despite these factors temporarily affecting Ethereum's performance, I still have high hopes for its future. As I mentioned earlier, Ethereum's potential remains immense. If I establish a position at the right time, rest assured, I will share it with everyone through video at the first opportunity.
Summary and Outlook: Patiently wait and seize market opportunities.
Overall, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a critical adjustment period. Bitcoin is waiting for a breakout of the consolidation range, while Ethereum, although performing weakly in the short term, still has great potential. Investors need to remain patient and seize the right timing.
Whether it is Bitcoin or Ethereum, we cannot give up on long-term investment value due to short-term fluctuations. The market will experience a directional breakthrough after consolidation, and this is a good opportunity for us to layout.
That's all for today's analysis. I hope it helps everyone. If you find the content valuable, don't forget to like and share, and see you next time!