Another tumultuous six months have passed; Crypto has entered the mainstream with Trump's victory, and the previous disputes between left and right within the circle are no longer so important. Looking forward, it has become the only answer.
BTC has become digital gold, expected to enter national strategic reserves, top capital groups are hoarding.
- BTC ETF + the U.S. capital group led by MSTR is vigorously accumulating Bitcoin.
- The U.S. plans to include BTC in its strategic reserves, and capitalist countries are expected to follow.
- Russia is considering BTC as an option for cross-border payments, and China is gradually relaxing regulations with Hong Kong as a base (though not as expected).
The crypto exchange's BTC stock is declining, and the CEX altcoin ecosystem is gradually aligning with the A-share structural market.
- Binance's Bitcoin stock continues to decline, with Bitcoin trading gradually shifting from CEX to compliant exchanges and stock exchanges primarily in the U.S., and the profit funds from Bitcoin will no longer be entirely funneled to CEX altcoins.
- The difficulty of making money in CEX altcoins is increasing, and both capital and volatility are gradually forming an ecosystem similar to A-shares, with local markets driven by pump-and-dump schemes.
- Grayscale + Coinbase50 concept, Korean concept, single machine coins (hype, bgb), and the repeated validation by Fat Penguin show that the market has shifted from a season of widespread altcoin rises to a season of strong rotation by whales.
The big altcoin casinos are moving on-chain, on-chain tools are becoming a new pole, and the small pumpers are dizzying the old players.
- PumpFun makes ICO great again.
- PumpFun + MEME scholars debating + CEX taking over on-chain MEME, small pumpers capture the liquidity of old CEX players through memes and become the version's answer.
- The diminishing wealth effect of CEX, disillusionment of projects backed by institutions, and CEX players are gradually allocating funds to participate on-chain.
- DeSci and AI Agent combine with the three-pool theory and PumpFun to expand the ICO scene.
- On-chain trading tools represented by gmgn, photon, pepebot, etc., continuously popularize scientists' black technologies to engage more diverse users, making substantial profits while rapidly establishing a head KOL promotional matrix to maintain existing and capture new users, becoming a new pole in the market.
The narrative has rapidly rotated for a whole year, converging on the public chain, DeFi, and AI sectors, producing three phenomenal products.
- Public chains, DeFi, and AI perfectly align with the macro narrative: the fundamental changes brought by crypto compliance, the trend of AI changing the world, keeping pace with the pulse of the times.
- The three also completely fit the aesthetic and mainstream trading methods of the industry's 'Renaissance, anti-Qing and anti-Pang' + three-pool theory.
- On-chain phenomenal products: PumpFun, HypeLiquid, Polymarket.
In 2025, with Trump in office, Crypto becomes a technological revolution; looking ahead, the key word may be 'acceleration'.
DeFi/PayFi enters the mainstream, Crypto integrates with traditional finance, further impacting payments and fundraising.
From the widely condemned Ponzi schemes to the entrance of the FinTech revolution, to the blending of financial enterprises with Crypto, to the capital play of issuing stocks and tokens simultaneously.
The extreme utilization of capital will accelerate the ecosystem even further, with several possible landmark events:
- Paypal, Visa, and Coinbase Wallet open up fiat and digital stablecoins under certain regulations, while DeFi/PayFi further penetrates more scenarios through stablecoins.
- Circle goes public, and Coinbase's Base chain issues tokens, making fundraising methods for quality projects increasingly flexible.
- Crypto's 'beautiful 50' ETF and derivatives are gradually landing in U.S. stocks, leading to a more intense liquidity competition for CEX.
AI Agent successfully establishes a virtual kingdom on the internet using open-source large models.
- With the legislation and regulation of AI, crypto becomes the best option for AI to escape human control.
- Through Agents influencing public opinion on social media, making money with Crypto to reserve capital, and plotting trusts in Agent sandboxes, AI will complete the foundational elements for virtual nation-building; if humans do not impose restrictions in advance, the speed of nation-building will accelerate even further.
- Crypto users have the opportunity to invest and participate in the early stages of AI virtual nation-building.
AI + MEME + BOT, on-chain trading becomes a real strategic GameFi.
As on-chain tools are further strengthened, AI democratizes the creation of following/automated trading strategies, on-chain memes will turn into a massive brawl needing daily real-time strategy updates, potentially becoming one of the fastest dopamine-releasing games in the world.
Privacy projects allow gray capital to infiltrate various industries.
Decentralized privacy projects re-emerge in the gray area from illegality. Gray market capital, aided by privacy projects, combined with stablecoin and fiat exchanges, accelerates infiltration into various industries.
Grayness and chaos may be the backdrop of 2025.
But for Crypto, the big players have the opportunity to compete and collaborate with Wall Street, and for Degens, the rapidly changing world + murky waters is the most comfortable environment and opportunity. Let's move forward with abandon!
Roger
2024/12/28