Bitcoin has fallen 15% just a week after hitting a record high of around $108,365, according to data from Bitstamp. The cryptocurrency could continue to fall further in the coming weeks due to a sharp increase in Tether (USDT) market share.

USDT.D weekly performance chart vs BTC/USD | Source: TradingView

Tether Dominance Signals ‘Major Crash’ in Bitcoin Market

According to analysis by The ForexX Mindset on TradingView, BTC price is likely to experience a “massive crash” due to its inverse relationship with the USDT Dominance Index (USDT.D), a measure of USDT’s market share in the entire crypto market.

Notably, the USDT.D index has shown signs of a strong recovery after hitting a recent support level in March. At that time, USDT.D rebounded sharply from the support level of nearly 3.80%, coinciding with Bitcoin reaching a local peak of around $73,800.

BTC/USD and USDT.D Weekly Performance Comparison | Source: The ForexX Mindset

This recovery shows a trend of moving into Tether as a safe haven when traders anticipate increased market volatility or bearish pressure. The ForexX Mindset predicts a similar decline in Bitcoin is brewing, and advises traders not to be fooled by short-term price spikes.

“We could see a big rally — a pump — that could make people think the market is about to explode,” the analyst said, adding:

“But don't believe it. This is a trap. Right after that surge, there will be a big crash, and anyone who jumps in too early will probably suffer heavy losses.”

This bearish view comes as Bitcoin has staged a slight recovery from its December low of around $92,120. By December 27, the BTC/USD pair had climbed to a high of nearly $96,740.

However, according to The ForexX Mindset, this recovery could create an “institutional investment trap.”

The analyst warned that dark pools and whales could intentionally push up the price of Bitcoin to attract retail traders, only to dump their coins at local peaks, leaving retail investors with significant losses.

Sellers Target $81,500 in January

Bitcoin is currently undergoing a correction after failing to clear the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level near $102,734.

The correction occurred as the weekly relative strength index (RSI) entered overbought territory while showing bearish divergence from the price forming higher highs, a classic signal of waning bullish momentum.

BTC/USD weekly price chart | Source: TradingView

Currently trading around $94,000, Bitcoin’s next downside target could be the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) around $81,500 if the correction deepens. A further decline could see Bitcoin retest the 50-week EMA near $67,700, which corresponds to the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level.

Meanwhile, holding the 1.618 Fibonacci level as support could send Bitcoin price to $150,000 by the first half of 2025, a record high target that has been previously predicted by many analysts.



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