According to the latest data from on-chain analyst CryptoChan, long-term Bitcoin holders (excluding addresses that have held coins for more than 7 years) currently hold 69.2% of their chips. Historically, this proportion usually falls between 57% and 62% at the peak of the bull market (see Figure 1), indicating that the market is gradually entering the final stages of the bull market.
Combined with the analysis in Figure 2, the data shows a key pattern during the halving cycle by comparing the change in the proportion of long-term holders during the halving cycles of 2016, 2020, and 2024: during the price increase stage after each halving, the proportion of long-term holders gradually decreases as the market heats up, and reaches a cycle low during the peak stage of the bull market. This trend indicates that the Bitcoin market is gradually approaching the peak area.
The current long-term holder ratio of 69.2% is very consistent with the historical law of the halving cycle. If this proportion continues to decline to the historical peak range (57%-62%) in the future, the market may be approaching the peak stage of this bull market. For investors, this is an important risk warning, but it also means that they need to carefully consider their positioning strategy, understand the rhythm of the market to reduce the risk brought by potential fluctuations.$BTC #BtcNewHolder #BTC150K #BullRunAhead