One of the key aspects that is increasingly being discussed in the crypto community is the so-called untraded#liquidityon the CME - a factor that makes traders predict Bitcoin's movement to the $80,000 mark. In this article, we will analyze what untraded liquidity is, why it matters for the crypto market, and what reasons traders have to expect such a scenario.
What is untraded liquidity on CME?
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is one of the largest global platforms for trading derivatives, including futures and options on bitcoin. Contracts traded on this platform do not directly include the asset itself, but their volumes and behavior provide strong signals for the cryptocurrency market.
Untraded liquidity occurs when the price of an asset quickly passes certain levels, leaving areas on the chart where there were virtually no trades. These 'gaps' become magnets for price, as market participants tend to return to the levels to balance supply and demand.
Example: if the price of bitcoin rises from $30,000 to $40,000 in a short period without lingering at intermediate levels, those areas are considered untraded. On CME, such zones are visualized as gaps – the breaks between closing prices of one session and opening prices of the next.
Why is untraded liquidity important for crypto traders?
Gaps as indicators of price attraction
Historically, it is known that over 90% of gaps on CME close over time. This is because traders strive to take advantage of the opportunities these levels offer, and market makers balance the market by pulling the price towards the untraded zones.Institutional interests
CME is the main venue for institutional investors. Their actions often dictate the direction of price movement. When the price approaches a gap, institutions either build up positions or take profits, creating powerful price movements.Liquidity factor
Untraded levels represent areas with high liquidity. Returning the price to such zones helps traders enter and exit positions with minimal costs.
The situation with untraded liquidity on CME in December 2024
Currently, there are several untraded gaps on the bitcoin chart:
The level of $35,000, formed in November 2023.
The level of $47,000, established in the spring of 2024.
The level of $80,000, which resulted from a sharp rise in October 2024, was partially filled by a correction.
Analysts believe that the last gap around $80,000 is key, as it coincides with the interests of major investors.
Expert opinions
Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg analyst, stated:
"Institutions see bitcoin not just as an asset, but as a strategic tool. Gaps on CME have always been a key signal for their decisions."
Cathy Wood, head of ARK Invest, adds:
"Bitcoin continues to prove its uniqueness as global digital gold. We expect institutional flows to increase, especially considering recent events on CME."
The return of price to untraded liquidity on CME is not just a technical term, but an important indicator actively used by traders and institutional investors. The forecast for movement #BTC to $80,000 is based on many factors: from historical data to macroeconomic trends and activity on CME.
For novice traders, it is important to remember that successful trading requires comprehensive analysis. Keep an eye on gap data, volumes on CME, and macroeconomic events to better understand market behavior.
As noted by one experienced trader:
"The crypto market is a chess game, where every move must be well thought out. Gaps on CME are just one of the pieces, but they can become crucial."
