According to Matrixport's latest report, Bitcoin faces many uncertainties and risks in the bull market in 2025. These risks come not only from the technical side, but also involve macroeconomics, policy changes, and new technological advances. The report analyzes these threats in detail, from BlackRock's questioning of Bitcoin's 21 million supply cap to Google's breakthrough in quantum computing, reminding the market that Bitcoin's future is not all smooth sailing.
BlackRock’s concerns about Bitcoin supply
As one of the world's largest asset management companies, BlackRock has expressed concerns about the 21 million supply cap of Bitcoin in its public statements. BlackRock's views have undoubtedly had a significant impact on the market, especially in the context of its aggressive entry into the market through Bitcoin ETFs. Although concerns about the supply cap do not directly threaten the market foundation of Bitcoin at present, they reveal the deep-seated doubts in the capital market about the long-term sustainability of Bitcoin.
Google's quantum computing threat
Google's announcement of the "Willow" quantum chip, which has 105 qubits, has quickly brought the threat of quantum computing to the forefront. Although current quantum technology cannot directly break Bitcoin's encryption mechanism, its rapid development has undoubtedly increased market concerns about the future security of Bitcoin. Although quantum computing is still in its infancy and has not yet posed a substantial threat to Bitcoin's encryption defenses, in the long run, the development of this technology may still change the security landscape of cryptocurrency.
Fed Policy and Inflation Risk
The Federal Reserve recently raised its inflation forecast, citing concerns about Trump's potential tariff policy. This adjustment brings more uncertainty to the economic outlook for 2025. Although Matrixport's inflation model believes that these concerns may be exaggerated, given the policy changes during Trump's term, future changes in monetary policy may still have a profound impact on Bitcoin. The Fed's policy changes, especially in response to inflation expectations and tariffs, may lead to volatility in the capital market, further affecting Bitcoin's market performance.
Bitcoin faces pullback pressure
In terms of technical analysis, analysts Peter Brandt and Tone Vays have warned that Bitcoin could fall to the $70,000-73,000 range. Tone Vays stressed that if Bitcoin falls below the key support level of $95,000, it will open up space for further downside. This analysis is consistent with the "expanding triangle" technical pattern proposed by Peter Brandt, which suggests that the price of Bitcoin may fall back to $70,000. According to the support of on-chain data, the current price of Bitcoin is close to the support level of $93,806, and once the price falls below this range, it may trigger further selling pressure.
Historical Price Patterns and Support Levels
Looking back at past bull market patterns, historical corrections have typically found support at resistance levels prior to the breakout. The $70,000 range is particularly important as it represents the price area before Bitcoin breaks out of its all-time high. This price range coincides with the point where institutional investors entered in late 2024, suggesting that there could be new buying interest here. With the combined effect of technical and on-chain data, Bitcoin's support levels are becoming increasingly critical.
The intersection of political and policy risks
In addition to technical challenges, political factors may also have a significant impact on the future of Bitcoin. With the possible return of President Trump, U.S. fiscal policy is expected to undergo a series of major changes, which may increase the hawkish tendency of the Federal Reserve. This change may bring more policy uncertainty to Bitcoin. Looking back, changes in regulatory policies have repeatedly affected the progress of Bitcoin's bull market. The People's Bank of China's ban on cryptocurrency trading in 2017, the actions of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in 2017, and China's crackdown on crypto mining in 2021 have all led to sharp market fluctuations.
Bitcoin price trend
As 2025 approaches, Bitcoin faces a more complex macro environment. New fiscal policies, the Fed's response to adjustments, and the changing regulatory framework may determine the future price direction of Bitcoin. Matrixport believes that although the market is still full of uncertainty in the short term, Bitcoin may have another chance to rise in the next few years after a round of sharp corrections. For investors, understanding and grasping these risks will be the key to success.
As one of the most promising crypto assets in the world, the future direction of Bitcoin will be determined by multiple factors. Market reactions, technological advances, and policy changes will all play an important role in future price fluctuations.
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