Key Points:

  • SEC appeal uncertainty weighs on XRP, with potential to drop below $1.50 or rally to $3.55 depending on the outcome.

  • SEC leadership transition sparks hope for a pro-crypto shift but raises uncertainty over Ripple’s legal battle.

  • Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $418.7M, signaling renewed demand, but BTC struggled to reclaim $100k.

  • BLK

    -0.00%

  • FBTC

    -3.46%

  • IBIT

    -3.42%

  • XRP

    +0.02%

  • Bitcoin

    +0.72%

SEC vs. Ripple: Will the Appeal Move Forward?

The SEC v Ripple case remains a focal point as the January 15 deadline approaches. Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel recently weighed in on the SEC’s appeal strategy, suggesting a potential withdrawal, stating,

“The appeal will continue for now, and that process takes about a year. But there is the possibility that a new administration decides to move to dismiss the appeal. That’s not something I recall happening before, but it’s possible and maybe likely.”

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Expectations of the SEC filing its appeal-related opening brief by the deadline contributed to XRP’s retreat from the December 3 high of $2.9070.

SEC Chair Gensler will leave the SEC on January 20. However, after recently promoting crypto-enforcement lawyers to senior executive positions, the SEC Chair further entrenched his stance on the crypto industry.

Incoming SEC Chair Paul Atkins faces a challenging start. Atkins will need to balance Trump’s pro-crypto agenda with the agency’s embedded enforcement policies. Former SEC Division Chief John Reed Stark remarked on Atkins’ potential conflicts within the SEC, saying,

“The Stark reality is that it looks like the crypto-fight is on post-January 20th. So get ready for World War III on day one Chair Atkins, because these three crypto-enforcement lawyers, who are now in charge, are some of the best in the business and will not roll over easily.”

However, it’s not up to the SEC lawyers to decide whether the agency should continue with an appeal or withdraw it. Internal SEC rules mandate that an agency vote, not the Chair alone, determines the appeal’s continuation or withdrawal.

With incoming SEC Commissioners and Chair expected to support Trump’s crypto agenda, an eventual withdrawal remains possible. However, lingering uncertainty about the SEC’s actions continues to pressure XRP.

On Thursday, December 26, XRP slid by 6.21%. Following a 1.15% loss from Wednesday, closing at $2.1537. XRP underperformed the broader market, which declined by 3.84% to a market cap of $3.240 trillion. Uncertainty about the SEC’s plans regarding the Ripple case weighed on XRP demand.

Near-term trends will hinge on the SEC’s plans regarding the opening brief. If the SEC files its opening brief, XRP could face intense selling pressure, potentially dropping below $1.50. Conversely, a withdrawal could drive XRP toward its January 2018 all-time high of $3.55.

Significantly, a withdrawal would set the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling as a pivotal legal precedent and support the approval of XRP-spot ETFs.

In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test. This precedent could end the SEC’s legal cases against crypto firms supporting secondary crypto sales.

Unlock Exclusive XRP Price Insights: Discover what the SEC’s next move could mean for XRP’s future. Don’t miss our expert analysis here – read now!

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Flows: Will Inflows Signal a Return to $100k?

Bitcoin (BTC) reversed its holiday rally on Thursday after failing to break back above $100k for the seventh consecutive session.

The US BTC-spot ETF Market extended its outflow streak to four days on Tuesday, its longest since an eight-day outflow streak ended in September. However, the flow data for Thursday suggests a shift in demand. Notable inflows included:

  • Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows of $254.4 million.

  • ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported net inflows of $186.9 million.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

On Thursday, December 26, BTC declined by 3.74%, reversing Wednesday’s 0.745 gain, closing at $95,692.

Near-term BTC price trends will depend on US BTC-spot ETF flow trends and strategic bitcoin reserve (SBR)-related news.

Continued spot ETF inflows could boost BTC demand, potentially driving BTC toward $100k. However, BTC outflows and uncertainty about Trump being able to add BTC as a strategic reserve asset may drag BTC toward the $90,742 support level.

Market Outlook for XRP and BTC

As 2024 concludes, XRP and BTC face critical inflection points. The SEC’s decision on Ripple and the trajectory of BTC-spot ETF flows could redraw the broader crypto landscape. Regulatory developments and macroeconomic factors remain key drivers in determining the digital asset market’s direction. Stay informed with our expert insights and analysis

$BTC

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