Chinese stocks gave up gains, with overnight performance in U.S. stocks offering little guidance.

Few analysts think that the last few trading days of 2024 will stir up any storms. However, it should be noted that when entering the first trading day of 2025, the market may suddenly speculate on tariffs and adjust the Fed's interest rate cut bets, and there is a risk of increased volatility at any time.

1. Investors are optimistic about China's recovery, which is the root cause of the A-share market's failure to fill the gap. Although China has remained tight-lipped, two major economic conferences at the end of the year have led the market to generally believe that China's GDP growth target for 2025 will continue to be set at around 5%. However, the realistic problem facing China next year is how to meet the market's already raised expectations, and the market expectation gap is likely to widen.

2. The RMB is still in a deadlock, waiting for something big to happen. The RMB exchange rate midpoint set by the People's Bank of China today is still more than 1,000 points stronger than market expectations, and this has been the case for almost all of the five trading days this week. Since December, the offshore RMB has tested the 7.30 level several times. The central bank's approach has only remained at the level of regulating the pace and magnitude of depreciation, which has significantly increased its tolerance for depreciation. Most people believe that the RMB will continue to decline, but it is unknown to what extent the central bank can tolerate the depreciation of the RMB. At the beginning of the Sino-US trade friction in 2018, the RMB exchange rate fell by nearly 10% in six months.

3. The expectation of the last reserve requirement cut this year seems to be dashed. The reason is simple: if the stock market remains stable, there is no need to cut the reserve requirement. If the Fed suddenly starts to fight back against RMB short sellers, it is likely that the policy will be relaxed. It should be noted that the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts will limit the room for the People's Bank of China to relax its policy.

4. The Federal Reserve has not spoken this week, and its next speech is expected to be more academic and lengthy - because the Federal Reserve will enter the most painful interest rate cutting cycle, during which there may be market expectations of a pause in interest rate cuts or even an increase in interest rates. repeatedly. We provide a detailed timeline in the (2025 Global Investment Yearbook) with a clear answer: How many interest rate cuts will there be in 2025? When will interest rate cuts stop? When will the interest rate hike hype begin?

5. The US dollar index remains stable above the high level of 108, showing an eager attitude. Fortunately, the 10-year US Treasury yield has declined, which makes everything look peaceful.

Today's task is still to wait for the closing of the US stock market and make a judgment based on the details. $BTC #美国加密立法或将重启