Original author: Scof, ChainCatcher
Original editor: Nian Qing, ChainCatcher
Homework review time - This article takes you through a one-stop review of the popular predictions and actual performance of the crypto industry in 2024, and see how many of the market predictions made by top investment research institutions such as Binance Labs, Coinbase Venture, a16z, Messari, Pantera Capital, etc. last year have been fulfilled? After all, their predictions for this year are out again.
Prediction is a contest of intelligence and vision, and the market gives the answer with ruthless reality. Get ready and take a look at the crypto world of this year!
❌ means the prediction is wrong or not completely correct
☑️ means the prediction is correct
⭕️ represents not completely accurate, there is room for discussion
Binance Labs
Related reading: (Binance Research Annual Report: 8 Major Priorities for 2024)
2024 Forecast:
⭕️ Bitcoin narrative remains at the forefront, and Ordinals and the BRC-20 ecosystem are expected to develop further
☑️ Further development of decentralized physical network infrastructure (DePin)
☑️ Further development of decentralized social media (DeSoc)
☑️ Increased artificial intelligence (AI) integration
☑️ Real World Assets (RWA) Growth
❌ Liquidity management and RFQ systems are booming
☑️ More institutions join the crypto space
☑️ Account abstraction becomes more important
Summarize:
Overall, the market in 2024 has verified most of Binance Research's predictions, especially in the areas of AI integration, institutional participation, and tokenization of real-world assets. Although Bitcoin ecosystems such as Ordinals and BRC-20 had a good start in early 2024, they did not develop further as expected as Bitcoin prices continued to set new records. Instead, they were forgotten by the market and fell into silence during the sector rotation. In addition, the "further development" of decentralized social media (DeSoc) is true to a certain extent. The social track has welcomed new stars such as Farcaster, UXLINK, and CyberConnect, and has also experienced the fall of Friend.Tech and stagnation of development. Compared with other tracks, the development of the decentralized track still faces many controversies and challenges.
Coinbase Venture
Related reading: (Coinbase 2024 Crypto Market Outlook: Bitcoin's dominance is further strengthened, optimistic about DePIN and decentralized computing)
2024 Prediction:
☑️ Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, institutional investment is concentrated in Bitcoin
☑️ The macroeconomic environment supports cryptocurrencies
☑️ Web3 applications continue to grow, bridging the gap between early adopters and mainstream users
☑️ Tokenization and asset digitization attract traditional financial institutions
☑️ The rise of decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN) and decentralized computing
☑️ Regulatory and regulatory developments to drive institutional participation
☑️ More user-friendly experience and technological innovation
Summarize:
These forecasts are largely consistent with current market dynamics, especially Bitcoin’s dominance and increased institutional investment, which have already emerged in 2024. Macroeconomically, due to the Trump administration’s inauguration and the realization of expectations for interest rate cuts, cryptocurrencies have gradually become an investment target for traditional institutions.
Coinbase’s 2025 Outlook is out——
Related reading: (Transformative Growth: Coinbase 2025 Bitcoin Crypto Market Outlook Research Report Full Text)
a16z
Related reading: (a16z 2024 Outlook List: Modularity, AI, Web3 Games...)
2024 Prediction:
☑️ Technological advances that improve user experience
☑️ The value of modular technology is enhanced
☑️ The potential of combining AI and blockchain
☑️ Transform from "earning by playing" to "earning while playing"
❌ The popularity of NFTs as brand assets
❌ SNARKs Technology Maturity
Summarize:
Obviously, a16z misjudged the development of NFT last year. NFT can even be said to have encountered its darkest moment this year. In the last bull market, NFT of luxury goods pushed brand assetization to a climax. In addition, compared with last year, the decline of Layer 2 and cross-chain bridges under the background of the meme craze has made the entire crypto market have very little discussion on project fundamentals and pure technology. The popularization of SNARKs technology faces challenges, but overall, the industry will still develop in a more operational, participatory and diversified direction.
a16z’s 2025 outlook is out——
Related reading: (A16Z Outlook on New Crypto Trends in 2025: What Industry Changes Will AI, Decentralization and Stablecoins Bring About?)
Messari
Related reading:
(Messari 2024 investment forecast: pessimistic about ETH, optimistic about AI, DePIN, DeSci new narrative)
2024 Prediction:
☑️ Optimistic outlook for emerging narratives
Messari is optimistic about emerging narratives such as DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure network), AI, DeSoc (decentralized society), and DeSci (decentralized science). At the same time, it is strongly optimistic about the combination of AI and cryptocurrency, believing that these directions will continue to connect Web3 concepts with the social and technological fields of the real world.
❌ The development potential of DeSoc (decentralized social networking)
❌ Circle may IPO in 2024
☑️ The rise of DeSci (decentralized science)
☑️ Bearish on Ethereum. Compared with Solana, Ethereum does not have an overwhelming advantage
Summarize:
As a veteran investment research institution, Messari did not disappoint. It accurately hit the "AI agent" track, which has had many eye-catching performances this year, and also showed goodwill to the DeSci track, which was not hot last year. In addition, their speculation about Solana and ETH as the "king of public chains" has also been strongly verified by the market. SOL's strong performance this year has been obvious to all, and it has caused many people to question the subsequent bull market price of the Ethereum system. Unfortunately, their judgment on DeSoc is slightly different from the actual situation, and DeSoc has not successfully reproduced the craze similar to the "DeFi Summer" in 2022.
Messari’s 2025 outlook is out——
Related reading: (Interpreting Messari’s Cryptocurrency Industry Outlook for 2025: Bitcoin will be better next year, and the Meme craze will continue)
Panther capital
Related reading:
(Pantera Capital: Crypto Outlook 2024)
(Pantera Capital partners released 6 predictions for the crypto space in 2024)
2024 Prediction:
❌ Bitcoin’s resurgence and “Summer of DeFi 2.0”
☑️ The rise of tokenized social experiences
☑️ Increase of TradFi-DeFi “bridges” such as stablecoins and mirror assets
☑️ Combination of modular blockchain and zero-knowledge proof (ZKP)
❌ On-chain computing for intensive applications
☑️ Integration of blockchain ecosystem and application chain model
☑️ Areas to watch in 2024 — Artificial Intelligence: Fusion of human and computer intelligence
Summarize:
Like many other institutions, Pantera Capital misjudged the trend of the Bitcoin ecosystem due to the strong performance of the inscription in 2023 and the second-layer narrative of Bitcoin. 2024 can be called the year of Bitcoin (its growth far exceeds that of most altcoins), but even if the Bitcoin ecosystem has good growth, it still cannot be called "Summer of DeFi 2.0". It is worth mentioning that as everyone discovers that the stablecoin business is very profitable, TradFi-DeFi will usher in good growth in 2024. In addition, like other institutions, Pantera also predicted that AI will usher in a big explosion and growth in 2024.
OKX venture
Related reading:
(OKX Ventures 2024 Outlook: Key Projects and 7 Predictions)
(OKX Ventures 2024 Bitcoin Outlook Report)
2024 Forecast:
⭕️ BTC expansion and application explosion, on-chain activity improves network security
☑️ Ethereum Cancun upgrade improves Layer 2 usability and leads the industry forward
☑️ Alt-layer 1 ecosystem, represented by Solana, will benefit from industry recovery
☑️ AI narrative is closely integrated with Web3 technology, and new applications emerge
❌ A new paradigm for blockchain games: FOCG (Fully Onchain Game) single point breakthrough
☑️ DePIN continues to maintain high growth
☑️ The macro environment is improving, entering a new era of encryption
Summarize:
Judging from the overall performance this year, OKX Venture’s expectations for blockchain games are still too optimistic. FOCG paradigm projects have failed to show significant growth. GameFi still only shouts the slogan “easiest to attract traffic” but does not have too significant users. increase. In addition, the performance of the DePin project this year can only be called passing, and there are some remarkable projects. However, the volatility of profitability and potential privacy issues are still two major difficulties that need to be solved. Overall, there is still a lot of research space in how the Crypto field can attract more users to participate from Web 2.
OKX Venture’s 2025 outlook is out——
Related reading: (OKX Ventures Annual Report: 60+ Project Layout and 14 Major Trends Outlook)
Blockworks
Related reading:
(Blockworks' outlook for the crypto market in 2024)
2024 Forecast:
☑️ The rise of Solana:
Solana’s market capitalization may be close to or even surpass Ethereum and will have a significant wealth effect in the NFT and DeFi fields.
There will be multiple rounds of airdrops and at least ten unicorn companies within the Solana ecosystem.
☑️ Evolution of Ethereum:
Ethereum’s developer activity and connectivity will grow further, and the narrative will shift away from “supersonic currency”.
Ethereum’s L2 technology will advance, but interoperability issues may still not be resolved in 2024.
❌ The boom of NFT market:
NFTs will see growth due to the wealth effect and capital inflow, with some series (such as Mad Lads) potentially having a minimum price of $100,000 each.
JPEG investment will become an important trend in the first and second quarters of 2024.
☑️ Bitcoin’s Renaissance:
The launch of Bitcoin’s L2 will boost the activity of DeFi and other ecosystems, possibly breaking through historical highs.
Bitcoin ETFs could be approved in early 2024, but their market impact remains unclear.
☑️ The future of DeFi:
The Solana and Ethereum ecosystem will welcome new DeFi projects and activities.
The popularity of staking may bring about issues of security and vulnerability.
☑️ Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency:
Artificial intelligence-related tokens will reach their frenzy peak in 2024, with a market value that may exceed $100 billion.
The linkage between cryptocurrency and traditional markets:
❌ Coinbase will further transform into a bank-like institution with a valuation that may exceed $100 billion.
☑️ The United States will re-emerge as the center of crypto activity in 2024, alternating with Asia to lead the market.
❌ The potential of games and social finance:
Games will become an important catalyst for retail participation in cryptocurrencies. Social finance and music NFTs may become new hot spots in the market.
Blockworks’ 2025 outlook is out——
(Blockworks' 27 predictions for 2025: The United States will become the center of encryption, and Base will be Solana's main competitor)
Summarize:
Blockworks’ prediction of the crypto market in 2024 has been partially verified. Solana’s strong rise has indeed been in line with predictions, significantly increasing its market value and creating a wealth effect in the meme space. However, despite Solana’s outperformance on some metrics, predictions of approaching or surpassing Ethereum in market capitalization have yet to materialize.
Although the NFT market showed some signs of recovery in the second half of the year, the expected "JPEG wave" did not set off a craze as expected, and only a few high-end NFT series successfully attracted more attention. Artificial intelligence-related tokens have indeed triggered a wave of enthusiasm, but the valuations of many tokens still appear to be inflated. The combination of AI and Crypto is currently more like a means of financing, and there is still a long way to go before the real technology is implemented. In addition, despite the increase in activities in the DeFi field, the security issues related to Staking have not erupted as expected, and the maturity of the technology still needs time to be further tested.
IOBC Capital
Related reading: (IOBC Capital: 10 predictions for 2024)
2024 Forecast:
☑️ After the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved, it may bring in 30 B+ incremental funds
❌ The total market value of inscriptions in the Bitcoin ecosystem may reach 20 B+, and only the head of the real Fair Launch MEME has a medium- and long-term consensus
☑️ Bitcoin Layer 2 will usher in rapid development, which is beneficial to Bitcoin ecosystem application-based Infra
❌ Ethereum Layer 2 TVL will surpass Ethereum Layer 1 and may reach 100B+
☑️ ZK Rollup’s TVL volume is still not comparable to Optimistic Rollup, but the zk-type modular combination of Ethereum Layer 2 Components will become more complete
☑️Layerzero will issue tokens in the first half of the year, which is expected to ignite the entire chain track
⭕️ Parallel EVM’s new narrative will drive the secondary growth of Sei v2 and other chains
⭕️ The market size of DePIN may grow 10 times
❌ There may be a hot-selling game with strong social attributes, Autonomous World / Fully onchain games
☑️ There will be star cases of the integration of AI and Crypto in multiple application scenarios
Summarize:
IOBC Capital's forecast for 2024 is comprehensive and bold, accurately predicting this year's ETF market and AI trends, but at the same time it is slightly more optimistic about Bitcoin Layer 2 and the full-chain gaming track.
The rune market in the first half of 2024 briefly continued the craze of the Bitcoin inscription ecosystem last year, but what followed was the cruel reality of "cut in half again and again"; many Ethereum Layer 2 public chains have not been bought into by users, and there is still a huge gap between TVL and the Ethereum mainnet. This year's highest TVL was a market value of US$55.3 billion in December; Layerzero ushered in TGE in the middle of the year, but the process was also bumpy. Due to the sluggish market, although the full-chain track is still accelerating its development, it has not ushered in the ideal climax; the DePIN track has indeed ushered in huge growth this year, but the forecast of a 10-fold increase in the market size is indeed a bit optimistic, from US$9 billion at the beginning of the year to about US$25 billion at the end of the year (roughly estimated).
HTX Venture
Related reading:
(HTX Ventures 2023 Annual Review)
2024 Forecast:
⭕️ Trading Innovation: The emergence of mature trading robots and new trading infrastructure has witnessed the continuous innovation of trading mechanisms, implying more dynamic and efficient market interactions.
☑️ Layer 2 Evolution: Driven by the highly anticipated Cancun upgrade, the fierce competition for Layer 2 solutions may give rise to major advances in scalability and efficiency, further consolidating the key role of this track.
❌ Web3 and X-Fi Updates: The move toward true Web3 projects (e.g., the success of platforms like Friend.tech) signals a more integrated approach to incorporating social and gaming elements into the crypto space.
☑️ Convergence with Traditional Finance: Discussions around Bitcoin ETFs and real-world assets (RWAs), especially the possibility of a Bitcoin spot ETF breakout, highlight the growing convergence of traditional finance and the crypto industry, hopefully marking a new era of market growth and mainstream acceptance.
Summarize:
These predictions have been partially verified, especially in terms of integration with traditional finance. The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs has significantly promoted the inflow of institutional capital, enhanced market confidence, and the encryption industry has gradually been accepted by mainstream finance. However, transactional innovation and the predictions of Web3 and X-Fi have yet to be fully realized. Despite progress in the development of trading bots and new infrastructure, it has yet to revolutionize market interaction; moreover, Friend.tech has suffered an embarrassing downturn this year.
HTX Ventures’ 2025 outlook is out——
(HTX Ventures report: The current market is still far from the peak of the bull market, and will continue to focus on Meme coins, AI coins and other fields)
Bankless
Related reading:
(Bankless: 2024 will be the AI+Crypto cycle)
(Six major crypto topics that Bankless will focus on in 2024: LRT, DA war, parallel EVM)
☑️ EigenLayer surpasses $10 billion in TVL
❌ 1 million ETH burned
❌ ETH Layer 2 moves to optimized VM and parallel EVM
❌Solana downtime
Summarize:
Judging from the actual market, these predictions have been partially realized, but they are generally optimistic. EigenLayer's performance is indeed impressive, with TVL exceeding $10 billion, proving that the restaking model has been highly recognized by the market. However, the burn amount of 1 million ETH has not been reached (as of press time, according to data, the burn amount in the past year is 472,000 ETH). Although the activity of the Ethereum network has increased, the transaction volume and usage rate have not yet driven the burn amount to meet expectations.
Regarding the development of ETH Layer 2, the current focus is still on scalability optimization (such as zkEVM and Optimistic Rollup). Although the exploration of parallel EVM has triggered discussions, it has not become a mainstream direction. This prediction obviously overestimates the potential for technological transformation in the short term. speed. The prediction of Solana being down failed to come true. Instead, Solana has made significant improvements in stability.
