On December 25, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) signaled the potential emergence of a 'Santa Claus Rally' as it attempted to re-establish the $100,000 mark. However, this rally was unsuccessful, causing the price of Bitcoin to miss its target and leaving many short-term investors questioning the potential for recovery in the near future.
Will the price of Bitcoin continue to remain below the six-figure mark?
The market sentiment for Bitcoin is in a negative state.
Bitcoin's inability to recover to $100,000 has pulled its price below $97,000, while also diminishing its dominance in the market. But the negative sentiment does not stop there.
According to data from IntoTheBlock, the 'Addresses by Time Held' metric – which tracks the activity of investors holding Bitcoin for 30 to 365 days – has significantly decreased over the past week.
This group of investors, often referred to as short-term investors, plays an important role in reflecting market sentiment. An increase in this group usually indicates optimism, but the recent decline suggests that their confidence is weakening.
Bitcoin's Addresses by Time Held metric | Source: IntoTheBlock
If this trend continues, the downward pressure on Bitcoin in the short term is likely to increase.
Another metric that reinforces this assessment is the Short-Term Holder – Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL). This metric measures the behavior of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days.
Based on data from Glassnode, the STH-NUPL metric has now dropped into the 'hope or fear' zone (orange), indicating that investors are skeptical about Bitcoin's recovery potential. If this trend does not change, BTC may struggle to attract enough demand to push prices higher.
Bitcoin's STH-NUPL metric | Source: Glassnode
BTC price prediction: Is a drop below $90,000 the next target?
On the daily chart, the price of Bitcoin encountered resistance at $99,332. This barrier is one of the reasons Bitcoin could not rise to $108,398. With this pressure, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will continue to weaken in the short term.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the neutral level of 50. This indicates that momentum around BTC has turned negative. If this situation does not change, Bitcoin risks dropping to $85,851.
Daily BTC/USDT chart | Source: TradingView
However, if the bulls can help BTC break through the resistance level of $99,332, the trend may change. In that scenario, the price of Bitcoin could get closer to the $110,000 mark.
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