Author: Scof, ChainCatcher
Editor: Nianqing, ChainCatcher
Correction hour—this article takes you on a one-stop review of the popular predictions and actual performances in the crypto industry for 2024, to see how many of the predictions made by top research institutions such as Binance Labs, Coinbase Venture, a16z, Messari, and Pantera Capital were actually fulfilled last year. After all, their predictions for this year have also been released.
Predictions are a battle of intellect and vision, and the market offers a ruthless reality as an answer. Get ready, let's take a look at the crypto landscape of this year!
❌ Represents that the prediction is incorrect or not entirely accurate
☑️ Represents that the prediction is correct
⭕️ Represents not completely accurate, with room for discussion
Binance Labs
Related reading: (Binance Research Annual Report: Key Focus Areas for 2024)
2024 predictions:
⭕️ The Bitcoin narrative remains at the forefront, and the Ordinals and BRC-20 ecosystems are expected to further develop
☑️ Further development of decentralized physical network infrastructure (DePin)
☑️ Further development of decentralized social media (DeSoc)
☑️ Integration of artificial intelligence (AI) increases
☑️ Growth of real-world assets (RWA)
❌ The liquidity management and request for quote (RFQ) systems are thriving
☑️ More institutions joining the cryptocurrency field
☑️ Account abstraction becomes more important
Summary:
Overall, the market in 2024 validated most of Binance Research's predictions, especially the trends in AI integration, institutional participation, and the tokenization of real-world assets. Although the Bitcoin ecosystem of Ordinals and BRC-20 had a good start at the beginning of 2024, it did not develop further as imagined while Bitcoin's price continued to break records. Instead, it was forgotten by the market in the sector rotation and fell into silence. Additionally, the 'further development' of decentralized social media (DeSoc) is somewhat true, with new stars like Farcaster, UXLINK, and CyberConnect emerging, but it also experienced the fall of Friend.Tech and stalled development. Compared to other tracks, the development of the decentralized track still faces many controversies and challenges.
Coinbase Venture
Related reading: (Coinbase 2024 Crypto Market Outlook: Bitcoin's dominance further strengthens, optimistic about DePIN and decentralized computing)
2024 predictions:
☑️ Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, with institutional investment concentrated in Bitcoin
☑️ The macroeconomic environment supports cryptocurrency
☑️ Web3 applications continue to develop, bridging the gap between early adopters and mainstream users
☑️ Tokenization and asset digitization attract traditional financial institutions
☑️ The rise of decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN) and decentralized computing
☑️ Progress in regulation and legislation, driving institutional participation
☑️ A more user-friendly experience and technological innovation
Summary:
These predictions are generally consistent with current market dynamics, especially the dominance of Bitcoin and the increase of institutional investment, which have already manifested in 2024. Macroeconomically, due to the assumption of the Trump administration and the realization of interest rate cuts, cryptocurrencies have gradually become investment targets for traditional institutions.
Coinbase's 2025 outlook has been released—
Related reading: (Transformative Growth: Full Text of Coinbase 2025 Bitcoin Crypto Market Outlook Report)
a16z
Related reading: (a16z 2024 Outlook List: Modularity, AI, Web3 Games…)
2024 predictions:
☑️ Technological advancements to improve user experience
☑️ The value of modular technology increases
☑️ The potential for the combination of AI and blockchain
☑️ Transition from 'play to earn' to 'play while earning'
❌ The popularization of NFTs as brand assets
❌ The maturity of SNARKs technology
Summary:
It is clear that a16z misjudged the development of NFTs this year. The NFT sector has even experienced its darkest moment this year. In the last bull market, luxury goods NFTs pushed brand assetization to a peak. Furthermore, compared to last year, the decline of Layer2 and cross-chain bridges in the context of the meme craze has caused minimal discussion regarding project fundamentals and pure technology in the entire crypto market. The popularization of SNARKs technology faces challenges, but overall, the industry will still develop towards a more operable, participatory, and diversified direction.
a16z's 2025 outlook has been released—
Related reading: (A16Z's Outlook on 2025 Crypto Trends: What industry changes will AI, decentralization, and stablecoins trigger?)
Messari
Related reading:
(Messari's 2024 Investment Predictions: Pessimistic about ETH, optimistic about new narratives of AI, DePIN, and DeSci)
2024 predictions:
☑️ Optimistic prospects for emerging narratives
Messari holds an optimistic attitude towards emerging narratives such as DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure networks), AI, DeSoc (decentralized society), and DeSci (decentralized science), while also being strongly optimistic about the combination of AI and cryptocurrencies, believing these directions will continue to connect the Web3 concept with the social and technological fields of the real world.
❌ The development potential of DeSoc (decentralized social) is questionable
❌ Circle may go public in 2024
☑️ The rise of DeSci (decentralized science)
☑️ Bearish on Ethereum, which does not possess an overwhelming advantage compared to Solana
Summary:
Messari, as a well-established research institution, has not disappointed, accurately hitting the 'AI agent' track that has performed well several times this year, while also showing favor towards the DeSci track that had not yet heated up last year. In addition, their speculation on Solana and ETH as the 'kings of public chains' has been strongly validated by the market. SOL's strong performance this year is evident, and it has raised many doubts about the subsequent bull market price of the Ethereum ecosystem. Unfortunately, their judgment on DeSoc was somewhat off from reality, as DeSoc has not successfully replicated the fervor of the 'DeFi Summer' of 2022.
Messari's 2025 outlook has been released—
Related reading: (Interpreting Messari's 2025 Outlook for the Crypto Industry: Bitcoin will perform better next year, and the Meme craze will continue)
Pantera capital
Related reading:
(Pantera Capital: 2024 Crypto Outlook)
(Pantera Capital partners release 6 major predictions for the crypto field in 2024)
2024 predictions:
❌ The revival of Bitcoin and 'DeFi Summer 2.0'
☑️ The rise of tokenized social experiences
☑️ The increase of TradFi-DeFi 'bridges' such as stablecoins and mirror assets
☑️ The combination of modular blockchain and zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP)
❌ On-chain applications for computation-intensive applications
☑️ The integration of the blockchain ecosystem and the application chain model
☑️ Areas to watch in 2024—Artificial Intelligence: Merging human and computer intelligence
Summary:
Like many other institutions, influenced by the strong performances of inscriptions and Bitcoin Layer 2 narratives in 2023, Pantera Capital also misjudged the trajectory of the Bitcoin ecosystem. 2024 can be called the year of Bitcoin (its growth far exceeds that of most altcoins), but even if the Bitcoin ecosystem shows decent growth, it still cannot be called 'DeFi Summer 2.0'. It is worth noting that as people realize the substantial profits of the stablecoin business, TradFi-DeFi is seeing good growth in 2024. Additionally, like other institutions, Pantera has accurately predicted a significant explosion and growth of AI in 2024.
OKX venture
Related reading:
(OKX Ventures 2024 Outlook: Key Projects and 7 Major Predictions)
(OKX Ventures 2024 Bitcoin Outlook Report)
2024 predictions:
⭕️ BTC scaling and application explosion, on-chain activity enhances network security
☑️ The Ethereum Cancun upgrade will enhance Layer2 availability and lead the industry forward
☑️ Led by Solana, the Alt-layer1 ecosystem will benefit from the industry recovery
☑️ The integration of AI narratives and Web3 technology is closely tied, with new applications emerging
❌ The outbreak of a new paradigm in chain games, FOCG (Fully Onchain Game) single-point breakthrough
☑️ DePIN continues to maintain high-level growth
☑️ The macro environment is improving, entering a new era of cryptocurrency
Summary:
From this year's overall performance, OKX Venture's expectations for chain games are still overly optimistic. The FOCG paradigm projects have not shown significant growth, and GameFi still only shouts the slogan of 'easiest to attract users' without significant user growth. In addition, the performance of DePin projects this year can only be considered passable, with some noteworthy projects, but the volatility of profitability and potential privacy issues remain two major challenges to be resolved. Overall, how the crypto field can attract more users from Web 2 still has a lot of research space.
OKX Venture's 2025 outlook has been released—
Related reading: (OKX Ventures Annual Report: 60+ Project Layouts and 14 Major Trends Outlook)
Blockworks
Related reading:
(Blockworks' Outlook for the 2024 Crypto Market)
2024 predictions:
☑️ The rise of Solana:
The market cap of Solana may approach or even surpass Ethereum, generating significant wealth effects in the NFT and DeFi fields.
Multiple rounds of airdrops and at least ten unicorn companies will emerge within the Solana ecosystem.
☑️ The evolution of Ethereum:
Ethereum's developer activity and connectivity will further enhance, and the narrative will shift from 'supersonic currency' to other directions.
The L2 technology of Ethereum will develop, but interoperability issues may still not be solved in 2024.
❌ Prosperity of the NFT market:
NFTs will see growth due to wealth effects and capital inflows, with some series (like Mad Lads) potentially reaching a base price of $100,000 each.
JPEG investments will become an important trend in the first and second quarters of 2024.
☑️ The revival of Bitcoin:
The launch of Bitcoin's L2 will drive the activity of DeFi and other ecosystems, potentially breaking historical highs.
Bitcoin ETFs may be approved in early 2024, but their market impact remains unclear.
☑️ The future of DeFi:
The Solana and Ethereum ecosystems will welcome new DeFi projects and activities.
The popularity of Staking may raise issues of security and vulnerability.
☑️ Artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency:
AI-related tokens are expected to reach a frenzied peak in 2024, with a market cap potentially exceeding $100 billion.
The linkage between cryptocurrencies and traditional markets:
❌ Coinbase will further transform into a bank-like institution, with a valuation potentially exceeding $100 billion.
☑️ The United States will rise again as a center for cryptocurrency activities in 2024, alternating leadership with Asia.
❌ The potential of games and social finance:
Games will become an important catalyst for retail participation in cryptocurrencies. Social finance and music NFTs may become new hotspots in the market.
Blockworks' 2025 outlook has been released—
(Blockworks' Co-Founder 27 Predictions for 2025: The US becoming a crypto center, Base being Solana's main competitor)
Summary:
Blockworks' predictions for the 2024 crypto market have been partially validated. Solana's strong rise indeed aligns with predictions, as its market cap has significantly increased and brought wealth effects in the meme space. However, although Solana has performed excellently on certain metrics, the prediction that its market cap would approach or surpass Ethereum has not yet materialized.
Although the NFT market showed some signs of recovery in the second half, the anticipated 'JPEG wave' did not create the expected excitement, with only a few high-end NFT series attracting significant attention. AI-related tokens did spark a wave of excitement, but many tokens still appear overvalued. The combination of AI and Crypto currently resembles more of a fundraising tool, and there is still a considerable distance from true technological implementation. Furthermore, although there has been an increase in activity in the DeFi sector, the anticipated security issues related to staking have not erupted as expected, and technological maturity still requires further testing over time.
IOBC Capital
Related reading: (IOBC Capital: 10 Predictions for 2024)
2024 predictions:
☑️ After the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, it may bring in $30B+ in incremental funds
❌ The total market cap of inscriptions in the Bitcoin ecosystem may reach $20B+, with only truly Fair Launch head MEMEs having medium- to long-term consensus.
☑️ Bitcoin Layer2 will see rapid development, benefiting Bitcoin ecosystem applications.
❌ Ethereum Layer2 TVL will surpass Ethereum Layer1, potentially reaching $100B+
☑️ The TVL scale of ZK Rollup still cannot match that of Optimistic Rollup, but the zk modular combination of Ethereum Layer2 Components will tend to be complete
☑️ Layerzero will issue tokens in the first half of the year, expected to ignite the entire chain track
⭕️ The new narrative of Parallel EVM will drive the secondary growth of chains like Sei v2
⭕️ The market size of DePIN may grow tenfold
❌ There may emerge blockbuster Autonomous World / Fully on-chain games with strong social attributes
☑️ Star cases of AI and Crypto integration in multiple application scenarios will emerge
Summary:
IOBC Capital's predictions for 2024 are comprehensive and bold, but clearly, this prediction is overly optimistic. The Rune market in the first half of 2024 briefly continued last year's Bitcoin inscription ecosystem craze, but followed by the cruel reality of 'halving again'; numerous public chains of Ethereum Layer 2 have not gained traction from users, and the TVL still has a huge gap with the Ethereum mainnet, with the highest TVL this year being $55.3 billion in December; Layerzero welcomed its TGE mid-year but faced difficulties. Despite the low market sentiment, the entire chain track is still accelerating development but has not reached the ideal climax; the DePIN track has indeed seen tremendous growth this year, but the prediction of a tenfold increase in market scale seems overly optimistic, from $9 billion at the beginning of the year to about $25 billion by year-end (rough estimate).
HTX Venture
Related reading:
(HTX Ventures 2023 Annual Review)
2024 predictions:
⭕️ Trading innovation: The emergence of mature trading bots and new trading infrastructure witnesses continuous innovation in trading mechanisms, hinting at more dynamic and efficient market interactions.
☑️ Layer 2 evolution: Driven by the highly anticipated Cancun upgrade, the intense competition among Layer 2 solutions may lead to significant advancements in scalability and efficiency, further solidifying the key role of this track.
❌ The dynamics of Web3 and X-Fi: The shift towards truly Web3 projects (such as the success of platforms like Friend.tech) marks a more comprehensive approach, incorporating social and gaming elements into the crypto field.
☑️ The integration with traditional finance: The discussions surrounding Bitcoin ETFs and real-world assets (RWA), especially regarding the possibility of breaking through Bitcoin spot ETF, highlight that traditional finance and the crypto industry are increasingly merging, which may mark a new era of market growth and mainstream recognition.
Summary:
These predictions have been partially validated, especially in terms of the integration with traditional finance. The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF has significantly boosted institutional capital inflow and enhanced market confidence, with the crypto industry gradually being accepted by mainstream finance. However, trading innovations and the predictions for Web3 and X-Fi have not been fully realized. Although there has been progress in the development of trading bots and new infrastructure, it has not yet brought revolutionary changes to market interaction; additionally, Friend.tech experienced an embarrassing downturn this year.
HTX Ventures' 2025 outlook has been released—
(HTX Ventures Report: The current market is far from the peak of the bull market and will continue to focus on Meme coins, AI coins, and other areas)
Bankless
Related reading:
(Bankless: 2024 will be the cycle of AI+Crypto)
(Six major crypto themes that Bankless will focus on in 2024: LRT, DA Wars, Parallel EVM)
☑️ EigenLayer has broken through $10 billion in TVL
❌ 1 million ETH burned
❌ ETH Layer2 shifts towards optimizing VM and parallel EVM
❌ Solana downtime
Summary:
From the actual market situation, some of these predictions have been realized, but overall, they tend to be optimistic. EigenLayer's performance is indeed impressive, with TVL exceeding $10 billion, proving that the restaking model has been highly recognized by the market. However, the burning of 1 million ETH has not been reached (as of the report, the data shows that the burning amount in the past year is 472,000 ETH). Although the activity of the Ethereum network has increased, the trading volume and usage rate have not yet driven the burning amount to meet expectations.
Regarding the development of ETH Layer2, the current focus remains on scalability optimization (such as zkEVM and Optimistic Rollup). The exploration of parallel EVM has sparked discussions but has not become a mainstream direction. This prediction clearly overestimates the speed of technological transformation in the short term. Meanwhile, the prediction of Solana's downtime has not materialized. On the contrary, Solana has made significant progress in stability.
