Predictive Scenario

Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins both increase in price.

  • Probability: 30% - 40%.

  • Strategy: Take advantage of "panic" to buy strong altcoins, aiming for a "broad growth" market.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises, altcoins rise slightly.

  • Probability: 50% - 60%.

  • Strategy: Selective altcoins in potential areas, avoiding overly highlighted zones.

Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins decline.

  • Probability: 20% - 30%.

  • Strategy: Liquidate altcoins, focus on Bitcoin.

Scenario 4: Bitcoin and altcoins both decline.

  • Probability: 10% - 20%.

Important Changes

  • Market sentiment: With the emergence of macroeconomic and political factors such as Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (SBR), Bitcoin could gain additional upward momentum.

  • Political influence: The new U.S. president discusses Bitcoin, generating significant interest from the market.

Themes and Potential Tokens

  1. Artificial Intelligence (AI):

    • Top Picks: Applied technology, consumer AI, gaming, infrastructure platforms.

    • Proposed tokens: ALCH, Griffin, Digimon.

  2. DeFi:

    • Top Picks: AAVE, ENA, Morpho, Euler.

    • Alternative options: Stablecoins and payment-related tokens.

  3. Layer 1:

    • Top Picks: SUI, HYPE.

    • Second choice: Monad, Berachain.

  4. NFTs and Gaming Tokens:

    • Top Picks: PENGU, ANIME (Azuki), Spellborne, Treeverse.

    • Alternative options: PRIME, Off-The-Grid.

  5. Other stories:

    • Data tokens: Kaito, Arkm.

    • DePIN: PEAQ, HNT.

    • Meme token: PEPE.

Notable Forecast for 2025

  • Bitcoin could reach $200,000.

  • SUI reaches $10.

  • NFTs and tokens used by major artists to manage and reward the community.

  • Binance loses market share, making way for other competitors.

  • The return of ICOs.

Hidden Risks

  1. Cycle peak risk: The market needs to continuously assess to avoid entering an unwanted peak period.

  2. Oversupply: Selling pressure from major institutions such as Mt. Gox, Grayscale.

  3. Macro risk: Volatility from interest rate policy decisions.

Summary

The year 2025 presents a great opportunity with various scenarios, but flexibility and adaptability are key to success. Regardless of market fluctuations, always aim to optimize your portfolio and enjoy the journey. If profits can change lives, use them to change your own life.

Wishing you luck and success!