The BTC price is far from a bubble; it is being sold by those who bought during the Bitcoin ETF hype, while it is being bought by mysterious whales. A new batch of on-chain data and their analysis from #CryptoQuant.
CEO #CryptoQuant Ki Yun Joo, relying on on-chain statistics, states that #BTC is far from the 'Bubble' phase and even further from a bear market. He notes that news about whale accumulation of BTC has stopped shocking players and has become commonplace. However, retail investors are not rushing to invest in the asset. Meanwhile, the daily capital inflow into the crypto industry is around $7 billion (!).
In the current phase, Ki Yun Joo allows for a significant correction of BTC (even up to -30%), but expects that this could be a short-term decline with a quick transition to growth. Quote:
'... I define a bubble as a period when the market price significantly exceeds the capital inflow, measured on-chain... At this point, it is obviously not a bubble... The peak of this Bitcoin cycle still seems far off. For those predicting the beginning of a bear market, I would like to hear their arguments. One thing is clear - they are not looking at the data on-chain.'
According to another on-chain indicator from #CryptoQuant, Binary CDD, the number of BTC sales by holders is decreasing in December compared to November.
At the same time, in November, the most active sellers of #BTC were not long-term investors from previous cycles, but those who bought the asset in the last 6-12 months. That is, at least some of them bought on the hype surrounding spot Bitcoin ETFs in the USA. In this context, the high buying demand did not push the price significantly below the ATH. Simply put - these purchases absorbed it. And if we return to Ki Yun Joo's estimates, this was not done by retail.
Other CryptoQuant data indicates that the number of so-called 'young coins' is sharply decreasing in the market. This is evident from the way the average age of coins is increasing year on year. CryptoQuant analysts consider this a positive signal, reducing price pressure.
An interesting point - according to another CryptoQuant data source, whales are accumulating #BTC through privacy transactions.
Over the past two years, the average annual number of such transactions has tripled. Although some attribute this spike to hackers laundering stolen funds, #Chainalysis analysts report total losses from hacks of $2.2 billion this year. This is just under 0.5% of the $377 billion in realized inflows into BTC.
In 2024, 1.55 million BTC was sent to accumulation addresses, mainly associated with ETFs, MicroStrategy, and custodial wallets. Whales often use privacy transactions to transfer their funds to new institutional investors. Additionally, aside from revealed assets, analysts do not know who else has accumulated up to 420,000 BTC. We add from ourselves - the news that this is, say, some state of no small stature - is potentially a pump of another 'divine candle' on the revaluation of the asset's value by the market. But this is, of course, only an assumption.
Meanwhile, BTC reserves on the top cryptocurrency exchange Binance have fallen below 570,000 BTC - the lowest level since January 2024.
Investors believe in the long-term prospects of BTC and are withdrawing their funds from the exchange. Historically, this has led to an increase in the asset's price.
No one is particularly talking about the 'supply shock'. Yet, increasingly ideal conditions are forming for it. When even miners like the giant MARA are withdrawing the asset from the market. Miners, who should actually be supplying the market, are instead removing it.