Who will fall first in 2025, Bitcoin or Bitcoin speculators?
MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) is this year's big winner, appearing to be a software company, but essentially it is a Bitcoin speculator.
It issues stocks and bonds to raise money from investors, then buys Bitcoin, hoarding Bitcoin, relying on the price increase of Bitcoin to boost its own stock price. A perfect speculative closed loop, as long as Bitcoin can keep rising 📈
However, Bitcoin, as a typical super speculative asset, has a historically high volatility, with declines of 50-90% not uncommon.
Recently, Bitcoin ETFs have begun to see net outflows, with smart money taking profits at highs.
MSTR's stock price peak was on November 21, and Bitcoin's peak was on December 17, but MSTR's stock price did not reach new highs along with it, and has already fallen 35% from its peak. It can be seen that MSTR's stock speculators have already sold off, leaving many retail investors in disarray.
In 2025, it is uncertain how many retail investors and speculators will go bankrupt due to MSTR and cryptocurrencies, jumping from buildings or into rivers.
400 years ago, Newton lamented after losing £10,000 in the South Sea Bubble, saying, “I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but I cannot calculate the madness of people.”
Human greed and fear are the underlying genes of financial markets for centuries.