This post is to educate everyone about the black swan risk, and the way it is presented is quite unappealing; it doesn’t even attract any traffic. So I have to share another possible black swan event. Although the probability is not as high as the Asian financial crisis, it is definitely something we should be vigilant about. That is the rapid collapse of the U.S. government; this does not refer to the complete disintegration of the American system, but rather the fragmentation of Trump's administration. If you understand Trump's past, you will know that most of his business ventures ended in failure. The last two years of his first term had almost no achievements, with waves of resignations and dismissals, and even some officials left hastily after just a few days in office. This time, he has gathered more arrogant and ambitious individuals around him, which undoubtedly increases the probability of internal conflict. It is expected that this administration will face issues at a much faster rate than the previous one, thus another black swan event in 2025 could be the disintegration of Trump’s administration within its first year. $BTC $T

As 2025 approaches, rather than predicting market trends, let's propose a black swan event prediction: What kind of black swan events might occur next year?

Currently, I believe the most likely black swan event is a currency crisis in developing countries or Asia. We have already seen the US dollar continue to strengthen, and Trump's administration will also support a strong dollar; if US Treasury yields continue to rise, then the dollar will also keep increasing. Here, I will explain the macro logic behind this:

As US Treasury yields rise, global investors will be more willing to purchase these bonds because they offer higher returns, which will siphon off funds from developing countries back to the US. To buy these US Treasuries, investors need to buy dollars, hence the dollar will continue to rise with the increase in yields, and this trend is particularly unfavorable for developing countries. Currently, some developing and even developed countries have seen their currencies significantly depreciate, with currencies like the Indian Rupee, Brazilian Real, and Korean Won all falling to multi-year lows. Throughout history, several crises involving developing countries, especially those in the late 90s, often began with currency depreciation that then quickly worsened. Sometimes, large multinational companies in these countries issued dollar-denominated bonds, so as the local currency depreciates against the dollar, the debt servicing costs for these companies rise significantly. Therefore, this is undoubtedly a risk that requires attention. I would list this as the top potential black swan for 2025.

The AI sector will also undergo significant changes next year; the growth rate of AI hardware will slow down, but at the same time, AI software is experiencing an explosion. So, for this round of bottom-fishing, you should know what to fish for, right? The investment made last Friday at $LPT is now nearly doubled.