Last week, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States decreased, indicating that in the final stages of 2024, the U.S. economy is still avoiding a large-scale wave of layoffs. The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that 219,000 people applied for new unemployment benefits in the week ending December 21, compared to 220,000 the previous week, with market expectations of 225,000. The current unemployment rate in the U.S. is 4.2%, which is still relatively moderate by the standards of the past decade. However, during 2024, the unemployment rate has slightly increased, which is a sign of a softening labor market, as seen in the reduction of job openings per job seeker, a decline in new job creation, and more industries cutting back on hiring. According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of no rate cut in January next year remains at 91.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 8.6%.