Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced an upward move towards the resistance area ($100,000 - $98,130), aligning with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the 100 EMA on the 4-hour timeframe. However, buyers seem to be losing momentum, allowing bearish pressure to potentially take control.
View on Elliott Wave theory
Based on Elliott Wave Theory, Bitcoin seems to be completing wave 4, characterized by the Double Correction pattern (WXY). This corrective structure indicates hesitation in the market, often leading to a potential decline before continuing the main trend.
Volume analysis
An important observation is the lack of significant trading volume accompanying recent price volatility. The candles bringing Bitcoin into the resistance area lack conviction, indicating potential weakness in bullish momentum.
Support levels to watch
Immediate support area : $95,890-$95,540
Bitcoin is likely to return to this range, serving as immediate defense against further declines.Secondary support area : $95,000-$90,870
If the initial support level fails, expect the price to test this lower area. The 50 SMA (Daily) is linked to this area, further reinforcing its significance. Additionally, this move may narrow the CME Gap between $94,435-$93,935 , a factor historically influential on Bitcoin's price volatility.
Main scenarios
Bearish case
If Bitcoin breaks below $95,540 , bears may intensify selling, targeting the secondary support area . A break below this level could trigger a deeper downtrend, breaking the broader ascending channel structure.Bullish case
On the other hand, if Bitcoin surpasses the psychological level of $100,000 , we can anticipate an upward trend to continue, potentially driving prices to new highs.
Important note
⚠️ Risk warning: Cryptocurrency trading is inherently volatile. Always do thorough research and trade responsibly.
⚠️ Monitor resistance levels: A decisive breakout above $100,000 could signal significant bullish momentum.
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