Bitcoin Bulls Return to Market: BTC May Hit the $105,000 Mark
Bitcoin futures data shows that bulls are ready to push BTC prices back up to the $100,000 high.
Since falling to a low of $92,458 on December 23, Bitcoin has rebounded 6.5%, but has yet to break through the $98,000 barrier. Recall that on December 17 last year, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $108,275 but then significantly corrected by 14.5%. However, traders have regained confidence now.
The Bitcoin derivatives market maintains a neutral to bullish sentiment, indicating that the dramatic price fluctuations have not significantly affected overall sentiment. This positioning situation suggests that BTC prices are likely to continue climbing above $105,000.
Looking at the annualized premium of Bitcoin's 2-month futures, which is 12% higher than the spot market, it shows strong demand for buying (leveraged longs). Generally, a premium of 5% to 10% is considered neutral, as sellers adjust pricing considering the extended settlement period.
Also, looking at the 25% Delta skew of Bitcoin's 1-month options (put options), compared to equivalent call options, put options are priced 2% lower, a trend that has persisted for two weeks. If whales and market makers expect a correction, this indicator usually exceeds 6%, showing the premium of put options.
The traditional financial market has also begun to recover recently, with the S&P 500 index recovering from the monthly decline on December 24, and Bitcoin has also risen to over $98,000. Additionally, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen from 4.23% two weeks ago to 4.59%, indicating that investors are demanding higher returns to hold government debt.
Rising bond yields generally imply an expectation of increasing inflation or government debt, which can reduce the value of existing bonds. However, in this case, scarce assets like stocks and Bitcoin tend to perform better when central banks inject liquidity to stimulate the economy.
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