24-hour important news:
1. The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in January next year is 91.4%;
2. Google released its annual hot search list, with Trump topping the list of people;
3. Pump Science: Airdrops will only count tokens in non-custodial wallets;
4. The Japanese government has made a formal response to the proposal for establishing a Bitcoin reserve: it is still in the discussion stage;
5. This year, 9 new Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and MicroStrategy collectively increased their holdings by over 1.1 million BTC;
6. DeSci protocol BIO Protocol initiated a community proposal to 'cross-chain BIO to the Solana network';
7. Citigroup analysts: Six key factors including ETF activity and regulation will help determine the trend of cryptocurrencies in 2025.
BTC Market Analysis
Bitcoin received support when its price retraced back to around 92,000 yesterday, and then the price started a strong rebound, quickly bouncing back to around 99,000, which is also close to the previous high point.
We believe that the price has begun to follow a box trend. Currently, it is facing resistance at the top of the box, and it can be clearly seen that Bitcoin's price is again attempting to break through the resistance at the top of the box, which is around 99,000.
So far, the price has still not managed to break through successfully, and there are also signs of a downward adjustment. Therefore, it seems that the price may continue to fluctuate within the box, which means that after failing to break through the top of the box, according to the fluctuation trend inside the box, the price will again retrace to the bottom of the box.
Because generally speaking, the probability of a successful breakthrough is lower than that of a failed breakthrough, of course, this must be guaranteed under multiple trials. You can also review the historical market trends that have occurred in box trends.
Therefore, I believe that the current price at this position has a higher probability of failing to break through. So I suggest that those who want to see a successful breakthrough or continue to be bullish should wait for the price to break through clearly before entering the market, as the probability of success is higher.
Of course, waiting to enter the market after the price breaks above will result in a loss of some profits, which is certain. This is also a compromise that must be made to ensure a higher win rate, leading to what we often refer to as left-side trading and right-side trading. Everyone must grasp their trading style well.