BTC showed a clear pullback after reaching the phase high of 108,366.8 on December 7, falling to a low of 90,200.0 and then rebounding.
The current price is around 99,025.7, above the 30-day moving average (yellow line), but has not yet broken through the 100-day moving average (purple line).
The moving average system shows that the short-term moving averages are turning upward, and the rebound trend temporarily continues, but the 100-day moving average is clearly suppressing the price.
Short-term Support Level: 98,000 (short-term pullback low)
Strong Support Level: 95,000 (previously the bottom of the oscillation range)
Short-term Resistance Level: 100,500 (where the 100-day moving average is located)
Strong Resistance Level: 102,000 (previously important resistance level)
Trading Volume: Trading volume has increased during the rebound, indicating that current buying power is strengthening, but the high-level trading volume has not significantly increased, suggesting that upward momentum may be limited.
Yesterday's Direction Review: The price tested the resistance level around 100,000 yesterday but failed to break through effectively, indicating strong selling pressure above.
Today's Predicted Direction: Cautiously bullish
Strategy Logic: BTC is currently in a rebound stage but facing resistance from the 100-day moving average. In the short term, it may continue to test the resistance levels of 100,500-102,000, but be wary of high-level pullback risks.
Opening Position: Wait for the price to pull back to the 98,500-99,000 area, and open a long position after a reversal signal appears.
First Take-Profit Level: 100,500 (100-day moving average resistance level)
Second Take-Profit Level: 102,000 (strong resistance level)
Stop-Loss Level: 98,000 (stop-loss when short-term support is broken)
RSI: If the current RSI value is above 50, it indicates that the rebound trend is still in place; if it breaks above 70, be wary of overbought risks.
MACD: Pay attention to the golden cross signal of DIF and DEA to confirm whether the bullish momentum continues.
Bollinger Bands: If the price is running above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and breaks through the upper band, it may accelerate the rise.
Positioning Strategy: Observe around 98,500: If the price pulls back to this area and stabilizes, with a volume signal, you can gradually build up your position.
Position Management: After reaching the first take-profit target, you can reduce your position by 50%, and continue to look towards the second target with the remaining position.
Risk Control: If the price falls below 98,000, decisive stop-loss is required to avoid further losses.
This strategy is based on the current technical shape and needs to be adjusted dynamically with real-time market conditions. If the trading volume does not effectively increase near key resistance levels, be cautious about chasing highs. Always strictly implement stop-loss orders and control position ratios during trading.
Every resistance is a test; will it break through or pull back? Stay tuned to the expert for an in-depth analysis of the battle between support and resistance!
