2024 is almost over, and it has been a relatively good year for the ecosystem. But what awaits the cryptocurrency market in 2025?
This is a pressing question that investors may be facing. In this analysis, TinTucBitcoin discusses insights from renowned analysts about the coming year. While some predict the bull market will continue its rise, others caution against being overly optimistic. Here are the various parts of the top forecasts and key signals from essential indicators.
Analysts' Expectations: The Bitcoin Rally Will Continue, But First...
For Benjamin Cowen, a cryptocurrency analyst and founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, Bitcoin (BTC), in particular, may start 2025 with a correction. Cowen believes this could happen because in January, after previous halving years, Bitcoin displayed similar behavior. He advises market participants to prepare for a potential drop.
“In the previous two cycles, BTC corrected in January of the year following the halving. It may be worthwhile to prepare for this outcome. So it will be relevant to January 2025.” Cowen wrote on X.
However, this argument contrasts with some opinions that the price of Bitcoin could rise to around $120,000 in the first month. Currently, BTC is trading at $97,970. This year, the cryptocurrency has reached an all-time high of $108,268, reflecting a 112% increase year-to-date (YTD).
Ki Young Ju, CEO of the CryptoQuant analytics platform, suggested that Bitcoin's bull market could last until mid-2025. Young Ju made this observation in July, noting that BTC could attract new capital to extend the bull cryptocurrency market into that phase in 2025.
Actual Bitcoin Prices for Accumulating Addresses. Source: CryptoQuant
However, in October, Young Ju changed his stance. According to him, if Bitcoin's price ends 2024 on a strong note, this could lay the groundwork for a bear market in 2025.
“I predicted a correction as BTC futures market indicators heat up, but we are entering a price discovery phase, and the market is heating up even more. If a correction and consolidation occur, the bull run could extend; however, a strong year-end rally could set the stage for a bear market in 2025.” Young Ju said.
Recently, Axel Adler shared his view on the Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT), measuring the gap between the current price of Bitcoin and its 4-year moving average.
Typically, Bitcoin peaks in its cycle when the BPT index is between 6 and 8. On December 7, Adler noted that this index reached 3.2. However, he stated that if this index rises to 8, it could push the price of Bitcoin to $178,000.
Bitcoin Price Temperature. Source: CryptoQuant
“At a BPT level of 8, the price could reach $178K per BTC. In reality, this could be seen as a target for 2025, which could materialize if current demand for the coin continues in the spot market.” Alder mentioned.
Altcoins Are Not Left Behind: The Solana vs Ethereum Competition Will Continue
However, Bitcoin is just one part of the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, it is important to consider other assets and the potential macro outlook for cryptocurrency in 2025. At the same time, it is worth noting that apart from Bitcoin, only a few altcoins from the 2021 bull market may achieve new highs.
Nevertheless, there are some positive signs. For instance, BNB and Solana (SOL) have reached new highs, while the price of XRP has shown strong performance this quarter. Some relatively new altcoins, such as Sui (SUI), Mantra (OM), and Bitget Token (BGB), have also achieved impressive performance.
However, this recognition would not be complete without mentioning meme coins, which have a strong foothold in the market during this cycle. For this reason, experts forecast that meme coins, AI coins, and Real World Asset (RWA) tokens may continue to thrive in 2025.
Ethereum (ETH) has, however, been slightly disappointing. Therefore, the digital asset management firm 21Shares believes that Solana may continue to capture more market share from Ethereum in 2025.
In its report, 21Shares forecasted this based on the low fees that the Solana blockchain offers and the integration of PayPal USD (PYUSD) stablecoin adoption. Furthermore, emphasizing that this does not mean SOL will dethrone ETH's market capitalization.
“While we do not expect a complete ‘overthrow’, Solana is poised to excel and capture more market share from Ethereum by improving UX and infrastructure.” The report stated.
Nevertheless, the Total Value Locked (TVL) of Ethereum remains higher than that of Solana. Currently, Solana's TVL is $8.60 billion, while Ethereum's is $70.10 billion.
Solana vs Ethereum TVL. Source: Artemis
If the predictions hold true, the TVL difference could narrow. Regarding the Solana ETF application, 21Shares notes that approval could come in the first three quarters, but it may not arrive until 2025 ends or early the following year.
“The expanded role of Solana in traditional finance is expected to establish a foundation for traditional financial products such as Solana futures on CME or US-based Solana ETFs. Although ETF approval may not happen in 2025, this possibility is expected to increase as we move towards the end of the year and into the first half of 2026.” 21Shares added.
The Trump Effect and Acceptance Prospects
From a macro perspective, asset managers expect that the approval of a Bitcoin ETF will further drive institutional adoption worldwide. This sentiment may be related to Donald Trump being elected president of the United States.
Throughout the campaign, Trump has consistently promised that his administration will provide clearer regulations for the cryptocurrency industry. His inauguration is expected to take place in January 2025, and the resignation of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler could allow the market to experience more freedom.
Outside the United States, South Korea is considering lifting the ban on cryptocurrency ETFs. If achieved, this could drive trading volumes to extremely high levels in the Asia region. The UK is also not to be left behind, with speculation that the country may allow individual investors to access cryptocurrency exchange-traded notes (ETNs).
Based on the above, it seems that the cryptocurrency market in 2025 could yield more positive outcomes than what has happened this year. There is also a possibility that another country may adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, following in the footsteps of El Salvador.
At the time of writing, the countries with the potential to achieve this are the United States and Argentina under the leadership of Javier Milei. If this happens, the price of Bitcoin could reach new highs, and the total market capitalization could explode beyond $5 trillion.
For altcoins, the situation remains uncertain. However, if a significant amount of capital flows into these assets, they could also reach new highs. At the same time, investors may need to keep an eye on this. If the market experiences a collapse of crypto platforms like in 2025, this prediction could be invalidated, and the market could enter a bear phase.
