Analysts are monitoring the possibility of Bitcoin recovering above the 100,000 USD threshold despite weakened buying power from institutions due to the holiday season.
Bitcoin (BTC) has traded below the psychological level of 100,000 USD since December 19 and is currently down 9.7% from the record high of over 108,300 USD recorded on December 17, according to data from TinTucBitcoin.
1-month BTC/USD chart. Source: TinTucBitcoin
However, Ryan Lee, head of analysis at Bitget Research, stated that Bitcoin's price could quickly adjust above 105,000 USD as liquidity returns after the Christmas holiday.
The current downward trend of Bitcoin is a natural manifestation of the lack of liquidity during the holiday season, he analyzes:
"After Christmas, market activity usually picks up again, with funds expected to actively position themselves for sectors that may benefit from Trump's upcoming inauguration... The expected trading range for BTC this week is 94,000 – 105,000 USD."
Analysts' predictions come just under a month before Donald Trump's presidential inauguration on January 20, which is seen as a positive event for cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. and general economic policy leading into 2028.
Bitcoin's recovery to 105K USD is imminent, but Bitcoin ETFs continue to bleed.
Although Bitcoin is predicted to regain the six-figure price level, its current price action is still constrained by the decline in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF funds.
Bitcoin ETF funds have experienced a four-day decline, recording a net fund outflow of over 338 million USD on December 24, according to data from Farside Investors.
Bitcoin ETF flows (USD, millions). Source: Farside Investors
The inflow of funds into ETFs has been a key driver for Bitcoin's price surge in 2024. U.S. spot ETFs account for about 75% of new investments in Bitcoin, pushing its price above 50,000 USD on February 15.
Another bullish signal seen in the Bitcoin funding rate is payments that help fair trading by adjusting the futures and spot market prices, currently at 0.0100% on Binance, the world's largest exchange, according to data from CoinGlass.
BTC Historical Funding Rate Chart. Source: CoinGlass
The positive funding rate indicates that the market is dominated by buyers, as buyers pay fees to sellers (positive funding rate) to maintain their positions.
However, technical chart patterns suggest that Bitcoin's correction may extend, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, Rekt Capital, wrote in a post on X on December 24:
"Bitcoin has shown some signs of a recovery rally after being rejected near new lows... Overall, as long as previously lost supports become new resistances – further declines may occur"
1-week BTC/USD chart. Source: Rekt Capital
However, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's direction in the coming year. Improved macroeconomic conditions could drive Bitcoin's rally to 160,000 USD by 2025, according to a report from cryptocurrency service provider Matrixport.
