Regarding the ETF, in the past four trading days, U.S. spot BTC ETF funds have continued to flow out, reaching $1.51 billion. During this period, the most outflow was FBTC, with a total of $510 million; followed by ARKB, with inflows of $286 million.
In terms of market conditions, Bitcoin's low-volume rebound is not a healthy trend; overall market demand is insufficient. We need to observe the volume situation in the future. If low volume continues, it will be difficult to sustain the rebound. Today the U.S. stock market is closed, and market fluctuations are minimal. The true supply and demand situation will only be revealed after the U.S. stock market opens.
In terms of altcoins, the correlated performance is recovering, but the overall market enthusiasm for speculation is not high, and the profit effect is not strong; it mainly relies on correlation.
Is there still a buying opportunity?
There might be, and here's why. Currently, BTC has rebound to 98,000. Starting from the 23rd, ETH did not drop, and last night BTC surged. It is now a time of very low liquidity, and tonight the U.S. stock market is closed. Until after New Year's Day, true large liquidity will return. If there is any, it might be during this period when there is no liquidity; a slight negative sentiment could crash BTC. If altcoins follow the drop, then that would be a buying opportunity, but whether BTC will crash actually depends on market sentiment. After New Year's Day, speculation on the new president's inauguration will begin. The real trend should be from mid-January to early March. Therefore, during this period before mid-January, we should see if the 'whales' behind will offer another opportunity. To be honest, I can't say for sure.
Will the upcoming trend definitely arrive as scheduled?
It's highly likely, but the premise is that the U.S. economy does not encounter problems, Trump is not assassinated, and Japan does not cause trouble; these occurrences are very unlikely. The basic trend is fine. Moreover, according to historical data, the performance of stocks and risk markets like cryptocurrencies has been good within the first hundred days of a new U.S. president's term. This is backed by historical data, as new officials usually perform well.
The necessary premise for altcoin season.
BTC's rise maintains sentiment, ETH's continued significant rise is a signal and capital. It is especially necessary to maintain an upward trend on weekdays; otherwise, there will be problems.
Regarding altcoins, many believe that altcoin season has arrived. In fact, some altcoins have already shown growth exceeding that of Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, whether we have truly entered altcoin season still requires more market observation.
But this is just a simple measure of time; the logic supporting that we are already in altcoin season is completely insufficient, so everyone should not just follow the crowd.
I personally believe that altcoin season may arrive, but it should start next month. Therefore, we can prioritize buying the dip on altcoins during this stage, but more patience is needed.
During the Christmas period, we will mainly watch whether the overall market continues to maintain a wide range of fluctuations, so there is still an opportunity for us to buy the dip on altcoins again. Please seize this opportunity.
Currently, the altcoin index is at position 49, which is neither particularly low nor particularly high. Therefore, whether we have entered altcoin season still requires time to observe. Historical experience shows that the altcoin index rarely rises directly against the trend after a high-level drop; usually, further increases in Bitcoin are needed to trigger an altcoin explosion.
Finally
Starting today, we are entering the period of lowest liquidity, which will be even lower than usual weekends. The upcoming trend will further reflect the value of sentiment, especially the sentiment of Asian investors, which may guide the price direction in the next couple of days.
In the short term, it may be difficult for the market to see large-scale buying; the liquidity in the spot market is insufficient, but the long positions in the contract market are continuously increasing, which may push prices up. For altcoins, although some have performed strongly, the real altcoin season may take longer to verify, especially whether Bitcoin's breakout space can be effectively opened.
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