Question: If the past events repeat exactly, wouldn’t it be too easy? How could everyone become rich so effortlessly?
Answer: Even if past events repeat exactly, it does not mean people can easily become rich. In fact, it is much more complex than it seems.
Independent thinking
Truly independent thinkers are few and far between; less than 5% of people can do this. Developing the ability to think independently typically requires several steps:
Establish a solid epistemological foundation
Collect raw data
Apply meta-rules to narrow down strategy options
Clarify the relationships between things
These steps are not easy for most people. They have not tried, do not know how to start, lack relevant experience, and do not have enough confidence to make their views stand out amidst the noise of the outside world.
Without this capability, you would find it nearly impossible to start in the cryptocurrency field. Even the simplest, most logical datasets (like the LTC chart—the first altcoin, and the 'code' that all subsequent coins follow) may seem as complex as unsolved mysteries to you.
IQ and relationship management skills
IQ, in a sense, is a form of empathy. You need to infer the questioner's intent and understand the relationships they want to convey.
In the cryptocurrency market, the questioner is the entire market participant. Those with high IQs can quickly capture market relationships that others may never see.
For example, trying to explain the equation 3x = 6 to a dog makes no sense at all because it cannot comprehend abstract concepts like 'dividing both sides by 3'.
The same principle applies: can you 'see' the distribution of emotions, the profit and loss on the books, and the overall trends behind it by observing a chart? If you can do this, you have the ability to infer future market directions.
Strong strategic thinking (Meta game)
Many smart people can think independently and identify relationships in the market, but their overall strategic thinking is often very weak. Here are some typical failure cases:
Developers: believing that their technical skills can provide them with a market advantage.
Thought leaders: even though they are in high positions, their past investment records are often dismal.
Successful people: can investors like Paul Graham really find the right investment answers?
The eliminated group: almost everyone goes through this process, similar to how professional athletes eventually lose their peak state.
Humans fundamentally cannot fully understand and accurately model complex market systems. To avoid falling into these traps, one must possess strong strategic thinking to help filter information and allocate its importance rationally.
Risks in execution
Successful execution requires some basic abilities:
Most people with startup capital have relatively stable lives, making it difficult to easily invest funds in high-risk cryptocurrency trading. If you have a happy family life and a stable career, the potential gains from participating in cryptocurrency trading may be far less than the potential risks.
There are many classic traps in trading that even those with advantages may fall into. For example:
Viewing profits as 'casino money': truly calm individuals will consider the success of buying SHIB for $300 and making $30 million to be the same as purchasing the same stack of SHIB with $30 million of family wealth.
Not taking action at critical moments: similar patterns always repeat in the market. Many people know they are in bad trades or positions but hesitate to act. For instance: 'Oh, it dropped 40%... Oh, it dropped 70%... Oh, it fell 65% from its historical high... Oh, it dropped 85%... What should I do?'
How to avoid bankruptcy caused by external factors
Looking at the list of major Bitcoin holders, how many of these people do you think still hold their Bitcoin?
Top 500 Bitcoin Holders:
Top 50:
980,000 - Satoshi Nakamoto
400,000 - HD Moore
400,000 - Dustin D. Trammell
400,000 - Tod Beardsley
350,000 - Dread Pirate Roberts
300,000 - Roger Ver
300,000 - knightmb
200,000 - Mark Karpeles
182,592 - Loaded
174,000 - FBI
Common reasons for bankruptcy:
Hacked
Exchanges misappropriating user assets (there are countless similar cases)
Legal disputes
Tax issues
Why do the core figures in the cryptocurrency field face legal subpoenas, suspicious disappearances, scams, or arrests? In fact, preserving wealth is not an easy task. If you want to keep your Bitcoin forever, it seems that 'dying young' is the safest way (this is sarcastic).
So how do people become wealthy through cryptocurrency?
Most people who became wealthy through cryptocurrency actually have a significant misunderstanding of the market, but they just happened to seize the opportunity at a critical moment.
Many people invest in Bitcoin, perhaps just having heard that 'you can buy coffee with it' or 'it can combat inflation', or some other popular saying of the cycle, but these reasons actually did not materialize. If you thought Bitcoin was a novel technology that accrued real demand through dark web markets, proving its feasibility and gradually triggering a series of speculative bubbles in 2010 or 2012, then your judgment was correct. However, not many held this view at that time.
Some people invested in ETH early just because their poker friends from high school told them it could support decentralized games or other applications. Others believed that ETH would become an unstoppable smart contract platform (until the ETC fork event occurred).
However, these assumptions have hardly been realized. Most early 'whales' either sold their assets at low prices or experienced asset shrinkage of up to 95%. This indicates a lack of deep understanding of how the market operates and no clear investment strategy.