Deep Tide TechFlow News, December 25, according to Jinshi reports, numerous market indicators suggest that Trump's new term will face a historically high valuation in the U.S. stock market. Data shows that the proportion of U.S. household stock allocation has increased from 48.3% at the beginning of 2024 to 51.8%. This indicator has the most significant four-year return prediction capability since 1952, and current data indicates that the actual annualized return rate of the U.S. stock market from 2025 to 2029 may be -1.5%.
Although the household stock allocation reached a historic high during the 2020 inauguration, the S&P 500 index still achieved a 9.3% inflation-adjusted annualized return rate (higher than the average of 7.2% since 1952), but the current market situation has changed significantly. Multiple valuation indicators are at over 90% compared to historical distribution positions since 1950, 1970, and 2000, with some even reaching extreme values of 100%, indicating that the U.S. stock market returns over the next four years may only keep pace with inflation. Trump will face significant challenges in maintaining his tradition of using stock market performance as a political achievement.