Bitcoin started a rapid rise last night, breaking through several resistance levels in succession, peaking around $99,480 at about 2 AM today, suggesting that bulls seem to have regained upward momentum.
Does the negative premium of Bitcoin on Coinbase indicate a rebound?
This week, Western countries will celebrate the most important holiday of the year, Christmas (December 25), which has led some investors to worry whether Bitcoin will continue to decline due to a lack of upward momentum.
However, regarding this backdrop, CryptoQuant analyst MAC_D reminded investors in a post yesterday (24th) that Bitcoin has already shown a -0.221% negative premium on the US-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, suggesting that the current purchasing demand from US investors has slightly diminished.
However, he pointed out from historical data that this phenomenon will be short-lived during a bull market and is usually a buying opportunity.
The negative premium of Bitcoin on Coinbase reached -0.221%, marking the fifth time it has hit this level since May last year. The decline of this indicator indicates that the purchasing pressure from US investors has eased compared to investors on Binance.
However, historically speaking, this phenomenon will be temporary and will attract new buyers, which we can see as an opportunity.
Although it is currently uncertain whether this pullback has reached its bottom, if the bull market is still ongoing, then a bottom can form soon and a rebound can occur.
From the chart below, although there have been two instances of price declines after the negative premium exceeded 0.2% since last May, overall, there was indeed a rebound shortly after, making it a potentially worthwhile long-term indicator for spot traders.
QCP Capital: Altcoins may experience a rebound
Additionally, QCP Capital recently analyzed in a post on their official Telegram channel that about $20 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire on Friday, possibly signaling a new round of volatility in the market.
If Bitcoin rebounds again above $100,000, volatility may remain stable; however, if Bitcoin continues to struggle below $100,000, it may trigger a rebound in altcoins.
A similar situation occurred a month ago when the Ethereum/Bitcoin exchange rate was rebounding from a support level of 0.032, driving movements in altcoins.
We are closely monitoring whether Bitcoin will continue to decline from its current level to confirm the rotation direction of market funds and the trends of other cryptocurrencies.