How many Christmas rallies has the crypto industry experienced in the past decade?
From 2014 to 2023, cryptocurrencies experienced 8 Christmas rally rebound effects out of 10 occurrences after Christmas, with a total market capitalization increase of 0.69% to 11.87% within the week from December 27 to January 2.
On the other hand, the occurrence of Christmas rallies in the week before Christmas is less frequent, having happened only 5 times in the past 10 years. Similar to the Christmas rallies after Christmas, the increase in these pre-Christmas rallies ranged from 0.15% to 11.56%.
In the years when cryptocurrencies experienced corrections instead of Christmas rallies, 2017 suffered the largest decline of 12.12% before Christmas, as ICOs were banned that year. Additionally, the adjustments in the crypto market before Christmas were relatively low, ranging from 0.74% to 1.25%. Meanwhile, the corrections after Christmas in 2021 and 2022 were 5.30% and 1.90%, respectively.
It is worth noting that only 3 years in the past decade enjoyed Christmas rallies for cryptocurrencies before and after Christmas. The three years when cryptocurrencies sustained Christmas rallies were: 2016, when the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies increased by 11.56% before Christmas and 10.56% after Christmas; 2018, where despite market adjustments throughout the year, the increases were relatively mild at 1.31% and 4.53%; and 2023, when the recovery of the bear market saw cryptocurrencies rise by 4.05% before Christmas and 3.64% after Christmas.
In contrast, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies saw significant increases and decreases throughout December. In 5 of the past 10 years, the growth rate of the cryptocurrency market from December 1 to December 31 ranged from 16.08% to 94.19%.
Overall, these contradictory market performances seem to highlight that the crypto Christmas rally is not a very regular phenomenon. Observing the performance of the Nasdaq index over the past five years, the fluctuation during the Christmas period is significant, yet the overall increase and decrease is not large. Therefore, it can be inferred that the U.S. stock market does not have a significant negative impact on Bitcoin after the holiday ends.
In summary, although this round of bull market is significantly influenced by the inflow and outflow of BTC ETF, the Nasdaq index did not show a noticeable decline during or after the Christmas period, thus having little effect on crypto. The performance of Bitcoin itself is even contrary to the speculation of the 'Christmas crash'. #圣诞行情分析