The Trump trading frenzy seems to have cooled down recently. Wolfe Research, a top investment firm on Wall Street, released a research report this week analyzing that the Trump trade has three different stages. The first stage occurred after the election, and it is suggested that as the new U.S. government takes office, market strategies need to change according to policy shifts. (Background: Bloomberg analyst: A DOGE ETF is expected after Trump takes office, is $1 DOGE not a dream?) (Additional context: Peter Schiff blasts 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve': Trump should create an American coin with a cap of 21 million, and I've designed the logo.) Since the victory of Republican presidential candidate Trump in November, the 'Trump Trade' has been quite active, with Bitcoin skyrocketing. However, after Bitcoin broke through $108,000 on the 17th, it showed a brief downturn, dropping over 10% in the last 7 days, indicating that the Trump trading frenzy seems to have cooled down. The Trump trade in 2025 will have three stages, and Wolfe Research's report this week analyzes that the Trump trade will have three different stages. The report believes that as the new U.S. government takes office, market strategies need to change according to policy shifts. Analysts expect investors to price the Trump trade in three stages: the first stage has already occurred after the election, the second stage will unfold as agendas are discussed and implemented, especially within the first 100 days of the new government, and the third stage will assess the overall impact of Trump's agenda based on data, determining whether it is positive or negative for economic growth. In the first half of 2025, Wolfe Research predicts that defensive growth tech stocks, including the 'Seven Giants,' will perform excellently, as investors will avoid risks related to tariffs, reconciliation bills, and other policies. In the second half, after regulatory easing and clarity on trade policies, sectors like finance, industrials, and discretionary consumer goods, which rose after the election, are expected to benefit. Wolfe Research believes that early-stage policy uncertainty will weaken investors' enthusiasm for cyclical stocks, favoring long-term growth stocks. However, if the new U.S. government introduces significantly impactful legislation, it could become a catalyst for market rotation later this year. Optimistic about the U.S. stock market Regarding the overall performance of the U.S. stock market in 2025, Wolfe Research holds an optimistic view in its market outlook report, expecting robust U.S. GDP growth, loose financial conditions, and continued resilience in consumer spending. Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, inflation will approach 2%, and real GDP growth will reach 2.5% by the end of 2025. The S&P 500 companies' earnings per share are expected to reach $250 in 2025 and $305 in 2026, with an EPS of 22 times in 2026. Wolfe Research anticipates that the Seven Giants, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla, will lead the market again and continue to perform excellently. Wolfe Research Chief Investment Strategist Chris Senyek stated that market concentration remains very high, with the top five companies in the S&P 500 accounting for 26% of the index. The firm does not believe this dynamic will change unless after the next recession or a significant decline in the AI frenzy. Related reports: Michael Saylor: Trump really wants to build a Bitcoin reserve! Has met with the new government team multiple times. U.S. government shutdown crisis averted! Biden signs 'temporary spending bill', Trump calls for raising the debt ceiling in vain. ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounds by 7.7%! 10 whales withdraw nearly 18,000 Ethereum, Trump family WLF adds $2.5 million. 'Wall Street research report: The 'Trump trade' evolves in three stages, the first wave of post-election market has ended.' This article was first published in BlockTempo (Dong District - The most influential blockchain news media).

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