The peak of the bull market following the 2024 halving is likely to occur between Q2-Q3 2025.
Most probable time frame for the peak of the bull market: from May 2025 to September 2025.
The effects of the halving event will gradually become apparent, and institutional funds along with retail sentiment may peak during this phase. If historical patterns continue, the bull market high will gradually form when Bitcoin's price increase approaches 10-20 times.
Most probable time frame for the early stage of the bear market: from October 2025 to early 2026. After the peak of the bull market, a market bubble burst may trigger a large-scale correction, typically characterized by adjustments of 50%-70%. This phase may be accompanied by changes in the macroeconomic environment (such as interest rate hikes, rising inflation, or tightening policies).
Most probable time frame for the bottom of the bear market: from late 2026 to early 2027. History shows that bear markets generally last 1-2 years, with bottoms forming during periods of extreme market panic and very low trading volume.