Author: Game

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Fear of 'this being the last cycle' + uncertainty about how long good times can last + social pressure from others performing better. These three factors create a lethal combination that undermines many people's decision-making ability.

Possible consequences:

  • Distraction: Blindly chasing every hot trend while ignoring the necessity of focusing on key transactions.

  • Pessimism and hesitation: Losing confidence due to uncertainty, leading to an inability to hold any assets long-term or even completely abstaining from the market.

  • Lack of belief: Lacking in-depth research on projects, unable to build sufficient confidence to cope with market fluctuations.

  • Lack of profit strategy: Being afraid of the market ending and rushing to liquidate at the slightest pullback in Bitcoin, missing out on larger profit opportunities.

Response suggestions:

  1. Focus on key areas:

  • Focus on one or two specific areas or hot narratives within the chain.

  • Make a clear choice: on-chain transactions or secondary transactions, focus on one direction.

  • If you think you can dabble in all areas at once, you are only fooling yourself. Concentrate your resources and energy on the areas that align most closely with current market conditions and can yield the highest returns. Combine your capital scale, advantages, and market environment to find the direction and strategy that suits you best.

  1. Clarify your operating methods:

  • Understand whether you are investing, trading, or speculating; these three have essential differences, and do not confuse them.

  • A simple judgment framework can help you differentiate these methods and formulate corresponding strategies.

  1. Stick to your plan:

Develop a clear action plan, including the following elements:

  • Market cap range: Determine which market cap range you will enter.

  • Profit plan: Establish rules for taking profits in batches rather than liquidating everything at once out of fear.

  • Target estimation: Set the target price your assets may reach and the timeframe to achieve that target.

  • Stop-loss conditions: Clearly define when to partially or fully stop losses, which can be based on fundamental or technical changes, or adjusted due to macroeconomic changes (e.g., the upcoming release of important data). For instance, in uncertain macro conditions, it may be appropriate to take profits and wait for lower prices to re-enter.

  1. Know yourself:

  • Identify your weaknesses: Do you lack experience? Is there insufficient technical ability? Are there psychological biases of over-optimism or excessive pessimism? Are there issues with poor capital management or lack of time?

  • If you find that your weaknesses in these areas are greater than those of others, decisively give up competing in this field. Choose a direction where you have advantages and focus on areas where you excel.

  1. Continuous improvement

  • Reflect seriously after each trade—what actions were successful, what were failures, and what were the reasons? Was the problem in the process or decision, or was the decision itself reasonable but the outcome unsatisfactory?

  • Your goal is: to continuously reduce mistakes in operations, gradually improve your win rate through experience accumulation, and appropriately increase your position when the hit rate is higher.

  • If you neglect this process, you are likely to fall into long-term indecision, making it difficult to achieve real progress both psychologically and in terms of profit and loss performance.

  1. Don't go it alone

  • In the market, reliable partners are crucial. They not only hold you accountable for your actions but also help you compensate for your weaknesses.

  • Truly high-quality trading opportunities often come from mutual support within a team—you fill in their gaps, and they help you improve yourself.

  • Quality over quantity: The number of partners is not always better. What you need are traders with high hit rates, trustworthy, and at or above your level in the areas you focus on.

  • Broaden your horizons: Build a small circle that differs from your main area, where these people can provide you with important information on macro trends, market cycles, and other insights beyond your direct focus. These insights will ultimately feed back into your overall market understanding, helping you better formulate strategies.