Does Sam Bankman-Fried have a chance of receiving a presidential pardon?

Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the former CEO of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX, is becoming the center of speculation about a possible pardon from the president.

This speculation revolves around his ties to the Democratic Party and early donations to President Biden's 2020 campaign.

Speculation About a Pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried

Convicted on all seven counts of fraud and embezzlement in November 2023, Bankman-Fried received a 25-year prison sentence. Federal prosecutors recommended a sentence of 40 to 50 years, while his defense team only suggested 6 years.

As one of the major donors to the Democratic Party, he contributed $5.2 million to pro-Biden super PACs in the 2020 election.

In fact, the founder of FTX is the second-largest individual donor after Michael Bloomberg. These connections have raised concerns about whether political ties could influence leniency in his case.

Meanwhile, discussions continue to gain momentum after Tesla CEO Elon Musk commented on social media about the topic, suggesting he would be 'shocked' if Sam Bankman-Fried were not pardoned.

Musk's statements have reignited lingering skepticism regarding favoritism, especially in light of controversial pardons during President Joe Biden's administration.

"Sam Bankman-Fried used over $100 million from stolen customer funds to donate to political campaigns. Let’s see how he gets pardoned. 100% Biden," wrote Jason Williams.

Biden's recent decision suggests he is unafraid to make bold moves as he nears the end of his term. For instance, Michael Conahan, a former Pennsylvania state judge implicated in the 'cash-for-kids' scandal, received a pardon last week.

Conahan was sentenced to over 17 years for accepting bribes to send minors to detention centers. Biden commuted Conahan's sentence along with 1,500 other cases in December, raising concerns about potential leniency in high-profile cases.

The Pardon for FTX Associates is Surprising

The handling of other figures involved in the FTX collapse has also drawn public criticism. Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research, who cooperated with prosecutors, received only a 2-year sentence.

The most surprising aspect is that Gary Wang, the coder who allowed Alameda to siphon $11 billion from customer funds, completely escaped incarceration. Critics argue that this approach could encourage future criminals to cooperate to avoid harsher penalties.

Meanwhile, Polymarket has reported a strong increase in the likelihood of Bankman-Fried receiving a pardon. Following Musk's comments, the odds increased from 4% to 8%.

Additionally, the price of FTT Token has surged almost immediately following this speculation on Monday.

polymarket odds on Sam Bankman-Fried's pardon

The odds on Polymarket regarding a pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried. Source: Polymarket

The collapse of FTX remains a serious issue for creditors and the cryptocurrency industry. The company's Chapter 11 reorganization plan, approved by the court, is expected to take effect on January 3, 2025.

As speculation about a possible pardon intensified, the debate highlighted the correlation between political influence, judicial justice, and the lasting impact of one of the largest financial frauds in history.