#比特币市场波动观
This round of the Bitcoin bull market originated from Trump's election, especially the previous high point of $70,000, which was reached when Trump's election prospects became certain, and Bitcoin began to soar, ultimately breaking through $100,000. The crash on December 20 was due to two reasons: Firstly, during the entire Trump campaign, particularly in the month following his successful election, there were continuous rumors about Bitcoin being included in the U.S. strategic management assets, even on the balance sheet: In July 2024, Trump explicitly promised in a speech to 'never sell' the Bitcoin held by the government and any it might acquire in the future, insisting on the concept of a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve'; Currently, the most concrete Bitcoin reserve proposal circulating in the U.S. comes from pro-crypto Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis. The bill proposes creating a reserve fund managed by the Treasury, purchasing 200,000 Bitcoins annually for five years until the reserve reaches 1 million, which would account for about 5% of the global total supply of approximately 21 million Bitcoins. Especially since Trump changed his previously hostile attitude towards Powell, which the market interpreted as a gesture of goodwill, the market expected Powell to support Trump's economic proposals. However, unexpectedly, Powell came out swinging, stating directly: On December 19, Beijing time, at a press conference following the monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphatically stated: 'We are not allowed to hold Bitcoin.' This statement hit like a heavy hammer, instantly shattering the dreams of cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Powell further explained that the Federal Reserve Act clearly specifies the types of assets that the Federal Reserve can hold, and Bitcoin is not included. Additionally, 'the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, and may only lower rates twice next year,' which means that the market's dollar liquidity will be below expectations, and whether it is Bitcoin or gold, the support for price increases must come from currency, which undoubtedly caused a major plunge in the cryptocurrency market. This round of Bitcoin is very likely to pull back to $80,000; after all, whether it is Trump's presidency or Musk's antics, there is still room for speculation in the future of cryptocurrency.