2024/12/24 Nightline Supplementary Views

The 4-hour level no longer has a clear pattern, but under strong market control, we don't know what will happen in the next second. Recently, Beiyue is still Beiyue, and Dad is still Dad. If we continue to not buy or reduce holdings, Beiyue will soon turn into Beidog or Beisun in the square. This aligns with the mentality of the cryptocurrency market: unable to win and unable to lose.

If the ETF institutions buy, there will also be halts in buying and reductions in holdings; this is a very normal situation. It is also normal to see withdrawals and profit-taking before the holidays. Why does it become abnormal when it comes to you?

The 4-hour chart is now near the lower boundary of the Fibonacci channel; let's see if it can stop the decline here and complete a second bottoming. If it can't hold here, the strong support zone below the 4-hour level is at 902-911.

However, the daily level does not support a drop to this depth because if the daily breaks below 92478, it breaks the middle line. Once the rebound is suppressed by the middle line, then it really is a 'bottomless abyss'; you can open the chart yourself to see how deep it is below.

But I still feel that it is not yet a time for such pessimism; the selling pressure from altcoins and Ethereum is not that significant, and the selling pressure mainly concentrates on Bitcoin itself.

You can’t be happy because someone bought the ETF at that time and raised the spot price; now they want to sell a bit for profit as the holiday approaches, and you curse them? When they raised the spot price for you, you didn’t give them a dime, did you? And now you call them fools for buying high, just because they trapped you? Are you the only one?

After the holiday, the market will return to normal; it’s just that there isn’t much time left, with about 20 days until the next risk expectation period. If you still can’t get out near the Spring Festival and the Japanese interest rate meeting, you really need to consider reducing your positions.

Additionally, there’s an interesting little pattern: often, the market will drop in January during the Spring Festival, while in February after the Spring Festival, it tends to rise instead; this is also a very interesting pattern.