1. The trend of long-term holders with BTC holdings exceeding one year.


Figure One:


This data is the only one that has not been falsified so far, and it is also the escape top data that I still consider the most valuable to refer to until today, almost without exception. Of course, I mean within my personal data system. I am just a mortal, and there may be many data points that I do not understand, so let's not argue about that. There may indeed be more effective data that I am unaware of, but we will not discuss it further.



From the data, we can see that the four green intervals correspond to the four peaks following the halvings. The fourth one is clearly not yet completed in this cycle. From the previous three cycles, we can see that when investors holding for more than a year reduce their holdings to the bottom, it often corresponds to the peak price of #Bitcoin. I know many friends will say that the peak is sold, which is true. Still, as I said, we are looking at the results, not just arguing.


Figure Two:


Whether it is the long-term holders leaving the market due to high prices or the peak prices caused by the long-term holders leaving, they correspond to each other. I roughly sketched what I think the general trend looks like. Please forgive my lack of talent in drawing; it is just a rough schematic of a trend, without corresponding price relations. From a cyclical perspective, we should now be entering the 20% to 30% phase of a bull market cycle, with about 30% remaining until the peak.



Moreover, even when it is time to escape the top, the corresponding position should be that of a long-term holder at the 'arc bottom', rather than a one-time event. Of course, this does not mean selling at the highest point, but rather within the highest range. For example, if $110,000 is the highest point, the corresponding arc top should be between $100,000 and $110,000.


Figure Three:


So, from this perspective, the bull market is likely to last for about another 3 months before starting to decline. Although it is still a bull market, it is already nearing its end.



Of course, all of these data aspects are like trying to find a sword in a boat; they cannot provide the most direct results. In fact, whether this data is applicable in the current cycle is also a question mark, as this cycle is very different. Firstly, it is the first halving cycle coinciding with monetary tightening. Secondly, it is the first halving cycle with a large amount of off-exchange funds entering through spot ETFs. It is also a period where U.S. stocks ($MSTR) and #BTC are mutually influencing each other.



More importantly, the greatest uncertainty in this cycle is the possibility of Trump taking office again. From president to vice president, from SEC chairman to CFTC chairman, including the top officials in the White House and the chair of the Economic Advisory Council, all are individuals friendly to cryptocurrencies and fully aware of them. Moreover, the Republican Party has already begun to promote the development of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. even before being elected. Therefore, the data aspect of trying to find a sword in a boat may not be 100% applicable. More attention should be paid to trends, macro conditions, and economic movements.



The Prince has no paid groups and does not promote any exchanges. Be cautious of scams!