Today is Monday, the last week of December. Looking back on this month, everyone should have felt the cruel reality of the cryptocurrency world, and many assets have shrunk to varying degrees. Many brothers and sisters do not have positions now, and may not be in a hurry to enter the market, but remember that opportunities and risks coexist, and the timing of entry is very important, so don't be impatient.
Look at the trend of Bitcoin
Bitcoin is currently in a negative market again, and the price is continuing to fall. First, let's look at the technical side: Bitcoin did not break through the 4-hour EMA, but pulled back again. The support level below is around 92,500, which was also the previous closing position. If the price falls below this support level, it may continue to fall. The upper pressure level is temporarily 98,000, and it is unlikely to break through in the short term.
Let's take a look at ETH. The current price is also critical for ETH. If Ethereum falls again, it may return to the range of fluctuations a month ago. The current price is also near the support level when it accelerated at the end of November. There have been two declines recently. Once the support level turns into a resistance level, it is not very favorable for the development of the market. Therefore, the support level below needs to be paid attention to between 3050 and 3150, and the resistance level is between 3400 and 3550.
Market volatility and market adjustments
The current market is in a period of shock. Shock is not necessarily a bad thing. Historically, after a long period of shock, the market often rebounds strongly. For example, in 2023, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated around $26,000 for about 8 months, and then quickly rose to $73,000; in 2022, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated around $65,000 for 8 months, and then rose to $100,000.
These volatile periods are actually a process of deleveraging, and the market is clearing out those investors who are not firm enough. Therefore, you don’t have to worry too much about short-term market fluctuations. The important thing is to grasp the trend.
The US stock market will open normally tonight, and MSTR will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 Index. At the same time, the US stock market will close early on the evening of December 24. The market sentiment during the Christmas holiday is very important, which will directly affect the market trend after the holiday. Although the market may experience short-term fluctuations due to the holiday, I think there is still a lot to look forward to in the market in January next year, and the trend still exists.
The trend is what we always focus on. Many people will worry that the market will not perform well during the holidays, but remember that the trend is there. Even if the price of Bitcoin falls in the short term, it will eventually rebound. So, for those brothers and sisters who are short, don't rush to chase the rise, and wait patiently for a better time.
The Christmas market is about to happen. How should we plan now?
Starting from next week, we will inevitably enter the Christmas holiday period. I think that Bitcoin may fluctuate between 94,000 and 98,000 recently, and may continue to fall a little bit, but if it really falls to 90,000, it should be able to stabilize.
I have done a statistics before, and the market may not fall every time on Christmas. The key point is to see what the mood is before Christmas. If the mood before Christmas is not good, it will indeed affect the price trend due to low liquidity. But this time there are enough expectations for January, so I personally think that investors are still relatively rational.
BTC holiday performance in the past five years:
The BTC price fluctuated significantly from 12.20 to 01.06, but the actual fluctuations were within 10% in the past few years, except for the particularly drastic rise and fall in 2020.
In 80% of the years, the price of the currency performed quite well in the next two months. If the bottom-picking period is narrowed to the week after New Year's Day, the possibility of profit is still 60%.
At what point will the new market start?
We need to first sort out what conditions are needed for the market to start?
First, there is a large influx of ETF data, and secondly, listed companies purchase in large quantities, forming an effective bottom-up buying order.
Second, Ethereum has some timely benefits, such as the opening of ETF staking.
Third, Trump began to speak out in favor of cryptocurrencies, recreating the market trend after his election victory.
All of the above conditions are likely to occur in the future market, and they may not occur at the same time, but the closest data at present is the ETF data, including Trump's positive remarks on encryption. Now various indexes have completed a healthy cooling. For example, the altcoin speculation index has fallen from its previous high of 80 to 49, and it has not yet exceeded 90 in this round, so we cannot conclude here that it will take several months of adjustment.
The interest rate cut cycle has just begun, which is an important macroeconomic positive factor for the currency market. Moreover, there are only a few days left until 2025, and Trump has not yet taken office. As long as he has not taken office, the bull market will still exist. It can even be said that the bull market has just begun, because the market still has expectations for factors such as the adjustments that he may introduce that are beneficial to the currency market.
Then the starting point of the new market is speculated to occur in early January. Institutions and listed companies have ended their one-year investment returns, and January is a new beginning for them, so the probability of big moves in January will also increase. American retail investors will return to the cryptocurrency circle after the holidays, so be patient and hold on for a few days before you act!