The U.S. stock market will open normally tonight, and MSTR will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 Index. The U.S. stock market will close early tomorrow night on the 24th, so tonight's U.S. stock market sentiment is more important for Christmas. As long as the sentiment is better before the market closes, then Christmas will be better. There were also many expectations in January, such as Trump officially taking office, and the trend is still there. As long as the trend is still there, there is no need to worry even if it has been in an adjustment state for the next two days.
There are indeed many altcoins that have retreated, but this wave has not hurt our principal at all, thanks to our strict execution strategy in the past. If we want to rise back, we may have to look at the sentiment after Christmas, which is not far away. Since the end of the election, the market has been singing all the way, and the benefits brought by Trump have not yet ended. In the middle, we encountered the Fed's interest rate cuts and the negative sentiment brought by his remarks. This wave of callbacks will not last long. Later, Trump mentioned the friendliness of encryption, and basically the market will rise back to where it fell!
This week will see Christmas Eve and Christmas. Low liquidity is inevitable and there is a high probability that the price will continue to fluctuate. As the first quarter of 2025 is the beginning of the year, the performance will not be bad. In particular, Ethereum’s performance in January in history is very interesting: except for the bear markets in 2019 and 2022, it has almost always been rising in January in other years, especially the second year after the halving, which has been a brilliant performance.
The view that Ethereum will continue to rise after maintaining a stable position at 3850 remains unchanged, because the hype topic seen from Ethereum has not ended:
1. The possibility of ETF pledge approval increases after the new SEC chairman takes office.
2.ETH will be upgraded in March next year.
3. The Trump family’s DeFi projects are still being bought and bought.
4. On-chain whales are still hoarding.
Back to the current situation, although Bitcoin has rebounded over the weekend, the rebound is a bit weak. However, from the current daily level, if it does not effectively fall below 92,000, then it is likely to be a volatile adjustment trend. If this is the case, the adjustment period will generally not be too long.
There is support near 92000. If it does not fall below effectively, the probability of shock is high. If it is a high probability shock trend, some cottages will still have opportunities. In general, Christmas is dominated by shock adjustments, preparing for next year's market.
Is it possible to buy at the bottom after Christmas?
In my personal opinion, it is possible. Of course, this is under the premise that no other unexpected events occur. As far as these two days are concerned, it is only recommended to establish front positions in mainstream currencies such as SOL, BNB, and ETH, and short-term wave operations can be mainly used. We are currently preparing for the layout after the end of Christmas.
As for altcoins, since even the Trump family is buying altcoins at the bottom, this to a certain extent also shows that there are opportunities in altcoins. Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about altcoins, and we should look at subsequent market changes with a more positive attitude.
Now many coins have immediately pulled back to strong support, so we have started to gradually add selected coins to watch. It is recommended to play some leading coins in some sectors. Pepe and doge in the MEME sector are still worth playing, and the Ethereum series can be considered. What I am talking about here is staking such as SSV. After all, large funds of Ethereum are still gradually flowing in, and the real good news has not yet appeared.
It can be operated, and the ORDI with inscriptions and the WIF of the SOL series can also be used. They have been performing well since the last black swan.
At what point will the new market start?
We need to first sort out what conditions are needed for the market to start?
First, there is a large influx of ETF data, and secondly, listed companies purchase in large quantities, forming an effective bottom-up buying order.
Second, Ethereum has some timely benefits, such as the opening of ETF staking.
Third, Trump began to speak out in favor of cryptocurrencies, recreating the market trend after his election victory.
All of the above conditions are likely to occur in the future market, and they may not occur at the same time, but the closest data at present is the ETF data, including Trump's positive remarks on encryption. Now various indexes have completed a healthy cooling. For example, the altcoin speculation index has fallen from its previous high of 80 to 49, and it has not yet exceeded 90 in this round, so we cannot conclude here that it will take several months of adjustment.
The interest rate cut cycle has just begun, which is an important macroeconomic positive factor for the currency market. Moreover, there are only a few days left until 2025, and Trump has not yet taken office. As long as he has not taken office, the bull market will still exist. It can even be said that the bull market has just begun, because the market still has expectations for factors such as the adjustments that he may introduce that are beneficial to the currency market.
Then the starting point of the new market is speculated to occur in early January. Institutions and listed companies have ended their one-year investment returns, and January is a new beginning for them, so the probability of big moves in January will also increase. American retail investors will return to the cryptocurrency circle after the holidays, so be patient and hold on for a few days before you act!