Many people misunderstood last week’s statements from the Federal Reserve, thinking that the U.S. would no longer reserve Bitcoin. But that’s not the case; first of all, it is common sense that the Federal Reserve cannot directly hold Bitcoin.
In fact, institutions like Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs have been buying heavily. Whenever the market price pulls back, they quickly bring the price back up. This operation is actually very simple; they just don’t want to easily hand over their chips to others.
You need to understand that the reason Bitcoin is falling is not due to poor market sentiment, but because it 'rose too quickly'. If Bitcoin's price were $80,000 now, people might not be so surprised by this pullback.
Some people are using the Federal Reserve's interest rate dot plot to make a point, but there's no need to pay too much attention to it. It's just a tool for adjusting market expectations, not a policy to be implemented directly.
The real decision-making for interest rate cuts is based on specific economic data. These data are unpredictable by anyone. If the prediction is correct, you think it’s useful; if wrong, you feel it’s meaningless. The key is that the Federal Reserve does these things to ensure that everyone cannot easily earn 'certain' profits.
In simple terms, they do not wish for the 'retail investors' to make big profits.
Think about it again, if Bitcoin rises to $140,000 now, how much more can it continue to rise after Trump takes office? At the very least, the Federal Reserve must leave Trump with some operational space and cannot let the market surge ahead of time. Therefore, it is necessary to wait until after Trump takes office for Bitcoin to rise another 50% to 100% to meet the 'policy effect', 'to show that your aim is accurate'.
As for the most concerning issue of interest rate cuts—will there really be two cuts next year? I think it’s very unlikely; the Federal Reserve is more likely to suddenly cut rates 3 to 4 times, surprising the market. The result is that by the time ordinary investors react, they might only be left with some soup. This is more like a 'coronation gift' from the Federal Reserve to Trump.
Back to Bitcoin, let’s not forget that Bitcoin has its cyclical规律. Every time it rises too quickly, there will inevitably be a pullback. As for whether it can become a 'store of value', discussing this now may be a bit premature. More importantly, the development of Bitcoin in the next 5 to 10 years is key. The current price fluctuations are more of a game played by institutions.
Regarding the cyclical规律 of bull markets, this bull market should last for about another six months? Especially in the last two months of the bull market, mainstream altcoins may see a situation where they double in a week. At that time, how much can be earned completely depends on whether one has entered the market in advance to seize this opportunity.