Bitcoin's current price is $94,027. Over the past few hours, Bitcoin's price has shown slight fluctuations, with a slight decline, reflecting cautious sentiment in the market at high levels.
Bitcoin recently broke through the $100,000 mark, which is seen as the end of the first phase of the bull market. Many analysts and traders believe that this phase is characterized by rapid price increases, followed by a period of consolidation. Currently, the price adjustments around $100K are considered healthy market behavior, indicating that the market is seeking a new balance point.
It is worth noting that the difference between Bitcoin's median profit rate (Median MVRV) and average profit rate (MVRV) is used by some analysts as a predictive indicator for the top of a bull market. Currently, the Median MVRV is below the MVRV, which may indicate that the market has not yet reached an extreme overheated state, but it still requires continued monitoring.
From a technical perspective, the trend channel on Bitcoin's daily chart has turned red, indicating that the 'easy' money-making phase may be over. If the price can hold above $92,000, a new upward channel may open; conversely, if it falls below this average line, it may signal the end of a one-sided upward trend, especially for altcoins which may experience significant corrections.
Currently, Bitcoin's price is $94,500, with support around $92,000. This is an important technical level, and if it can hold at this position, the market may continue to rebound and attempt to reach new highs. If it breaks below $92,000, the next support level is around $86,000.
Bitcoin is undergoing a transition from rapid increases to consolidation. Although market sentiment is optimistic, there is a need to be cautious of potential downward risks. Continuing to monitor technical indicators and macroeconomic factors will be an important strategy for investors in the current market environment.
Historically, Bitcoin has closed down 5 times and up 6 times in December, with 4 out of the last 5 years entering a bull market after Christmas.
In Bitcoin's historical 11 'December' markets, there were 6 down days and 5 up days, with the largest increase occurring in December 2020, when the monthly increase reached 46.92%. The largest decrease occurred in December 2013, with a monthly drop of 34.81%.
However, it is worth noting that historically, every time Bitcoin has closed up in September, it has tended to rise until the end of the year (with consecutive closes up in October, November, and December), and Bitcoin closed up 7.35% this September, marking the best September performance in history.
Additionally, due to the first quarter often being the period when asset management companies arrange their annual fund allocations, in the past 5 years (2019-2023), there were 4 years that entered a bull market around Christmas, with only 2021 experiencing a decline after Christmas (the last bull market peak).
Overall market sentiment is optimistic, but also mixed with caution. Many investors and traders are waiting for further policy signals or macroeconomic data to decide their next actions. The recent market correction is seen by some as a good opportunity to enter, but others worry that it may signal the top of the bull market.
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