Based on the Bayesian regression model, there is a 70% probability that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will exceed $115,000 in the next 6 months, potentially rising to $135,000. This reflects institutional capital inflows, the continuation of the halving effect, and an increase in global safe-haven demand.

However, a 15% probability of a decline comes from potential regulatory pressure or black swan events (such as economic recession or geopolitical conflicts), where prices could fall below $90,000. Additionally, a 15% probability suggests that prices may consolidate between $95,000 and $115,000, reflecting market hesitation or a lack of directional signals.

The volatility of the Bitcoin market will remain high, driven by policies and sentiment in the short term, while relying on fundamental support in the medium term. Long-term investors can use volatility to seek buying opportunities, while short-term traders need to set stop-loss orders to reduce risk. Overall, the price of Bitcoin still has upward potential in the next six months.