#比特币市场波动观
Recovering the 100,000 mark for Bitcoin at 12.23 will be a sign of a rising trend.
After reaching a historic high of 108,353 USD on the 17th of this month, Bitcoin subsequently experienced a wave of price rise followed by a drop. Over the next three days, the price continued to decline, hitting a low of 92,232 USD at 7 PM on the 20th, resulting in a price difference of 16,121 USD, a drop of 15%. This trend represents a significant pullback within a bull market. Currently, daily support is above the 90,000 mark, which is near a sideways support level around early December. This range has seen price fluctuations for over 20 days, providing relatively strong support. As the market has undergone a sufficient pullback, with ample selling pressure released, the buying pressure has been continuously strengthening, resulting in a good ability to stop the decline.
Of course, the pullback does not affect the expectation of higher prices for Bitcoin. It will not be influenced by short-term pullbacks. Bitcoin has a large number of holders and a broad audience, making it the most decentralized and hardest to control currency, filled with the most loyal believers. At the same time, the largest expected pullback for Bitcoin remains at 85,000 points (previously, it was said to be 86,000 USD, precisely referring to the lowest point of 85,000 during the continuous rebound on the evening of November 12). As long as it does not drop below this level, it is believed that the overall health of the bull market will remain unaffected.
From the perspective of daily candlestick patterns, the daily line has currently broken below the MA 30 support at 98,600, with a certain distance to the MA 60 upward trend line at 89,500. It is believed that as long as the daily MA 60 upward trend line holds, there is no need to panic too much. Meanwhile, after six consecutive weeks of rising prices, Bitcoin recorded its first bearish candle last week, causing the weekly indicators to change from severely overbought to simply overbought, and pressure was released to some extent. However, this week, we still need to be cautious of a continued bearish state in the weekly chart. If the price experiences a rise followed by a decline, we must maintain a respectful attitude toward testing the last stronghold at 85,000. If it drops to this level without quickly recovering, the trend will become complex and difficult to judge.
Currently, for Bitcoin to break the existing bearish trend, the price needs to reclaim the 100,000 USD mark, which means surpassing the highest rebound level of 99,540 points at 3 PM on the 21st, indicating that the peak of the rebound has moved up, the downward trend has ended, and Bitcoin will continue to embark on a journey of new highs.