#比特币市场波动观察
Here is a summary of Bitcoin's recent trends:
1. Historical High Pullback: Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback after reaching an all-time high of $108,353 on December 17, falling to a low of $92,232, a decline of about 15%.
2. Current Support Level: Bitcoin found support near the $90,000 mark, a price area that has accumulated strong support since the consolidation in early December, with sufficient selling pressure released and continuous buying strength.
3. Maximum Pullback Expectation: The maximum pullback expectation for Bitcoin is $85,000, and as long as the price does not drop below this level, the overall health of the bull market remains unaffected.
4. Technical Indicators: The daily support level has fallen below MA 30's $98,600, approaching the MA 60's upward channel at $89,500. If the MA 60 support level holds, the market does not need to panic excessively.
5. Bullish Momentum Continues: The net buying volume of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF far exceeds the mining output for that week, indicating that institutional funds continue to flow into the Bitcoin market, and long-term bullish support remains.
6. Breaking Key Levels: Bitcoin needs to break through the $100,000 mark, especially the peak of the rebound on the 21st at $99,540, to confirm the rebound and initiate a new high trajectory.
7. Adjusted Upward Expectation: Bitcoin is expected to see a strong rise after consolidating between $90,000 and $100,000. This adjustment process is expected to be completed within two weeks, after which it is likely to challenge new highs.
8. Altcoin Trends: Mainstream altcoins have pulled back significantly, making it suitable for holding spot positions and waiting. Profits can be taken during rebounds, and new purchases can be made once prices retreat to bottom support, optimizing costs.
9. Risk Warning: It is advisable to operate cautiously, avoid participating in short-term large-position contracts, and prioritize spot investment.
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