Original author: Brayden Lindrea, CoinTelegraph
Translation: Alvis, Golden Finance
Asset management firm VanEck stated that if the U.S. establishes a reserve of 1 million Bitcoins according to the bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, it could reduce national debt by 35% over the next 24 years.
VanEck estimates that by 2049, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Bitcoin will reach 25%, achieving $42.3 million, while the CAGR of U.S. national debt will reach 5%, increasing from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz stated in a report on December 20: 'By 2049, this reserve could account for 35% of national debt, offsetting about $42 trillion in debt.'
It is expected that from 2025 to 2049, U.S. national debt will increase alongside the growth of Bitcoin reserves. Source: VanEck
'Optimistic' projections suggest that Bitcoin's 25% CAGR will start from a price point of $200,000 in 2025. Bitcoin's current trading price is $95,360, needing to more than double to reach the starting point indicated by VanEck.
The price of Bitcoin rising to $42.3 million means it constitutes about 18% of global financial assets — far higher than its current 0.22% share in today's $90 trillion market.
The estimated CAGR for U.S. national debt and Bitcoin reserve holdings, as well as Bitcoin value, is 25%. Source: VanEck
Donald Trump's new government proposed the idea of Bitcoin reserves, which drove the price of Bitcoin above six figures, but Senator Lummis's bill has yet to be reviewed by the Senate or House of Representatives.
Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers claimed earlier this month that Trump could issue an executive order on his first day in office designating Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
According to the Lummis Bill, the U.S. could re-utilize the 198,100 Bitcoins it holds due to asset seizures, while the remaining 801,900 Bitcoins could be financed through emergency support features, selling a portion of its $455 billion gold reserves in exchange for Bitcoin, or both — all without the need to print money or taxpayer funds, VanEck noted.
Sigel and Frankovitz indicated that the adoption of Bitcoin at the state, institutional, and corporate levels in the U.S. will also boost the estimated CAGR for Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded fund issuers.
Sigel explained in an X post on December 21 that the national state members of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) could also influence the price of Bitcoin and lead to its increasing use as currency.
They pointed out: 'For countries hoping to avoid parabolic growth in U.S. dollar sanctions, Bitcoin is likely to be widely used as a settlement currency for global trade.'
