The current price of Bitcoin is $94,027. In the past few hours, Bitcoin's price has shown slight fluctuations with a slight decline, reflecting cautious sentiment in the market at high levels.
Bitcoin recently broke through the $100,000 mark, which is seen as the end of the first phase of the bull market. Many analysts and traders believe that this phase is characterized by rapid price increases, followed by a consolidation period. Now, adjustments around the $100K mark are considered healthy market behavior, indicating that the market is searching for a new balance point.
It is worth noting that the difference between Bitcoin's median profit rate (Median MVRV) and average profit rate (MVRV) is used by some analysts as a predictive indicator of a bull market peak. Currently, the Median MVRV is below the MVRV, which may indicate that the market has not reached an extreme overheating state, but continued attention is needed.
From a technical perspective, the trend channel on Bitcoin's daily chart has turned red, indicating that the 'easy' profit-making phase may be over. The key EMA20 moving average has become the market's dividing line. If the price can hold above the EMA20, a new upward channel may open; conversely, if it falls below this moving average, it may indicate the end of the unilateral upward logic, especially for altcoins, which may experience significant corrections.
Currently, Bitcoin's price is $94,500, with support around $92,000. This is an important technical level; if it can hold this position, the market may continue to rebound and attempt to reach new highs. If it falls below $92,000, the next support level is around $86,000.
Bitcoin is undergoing a transition from rapid increase to consolidation. Market sentiment is optimistic, but potential downside risks also need to be monitored. Continuing to focus on technical indicators and macroeconomic factors will be an important strategy for investors in the current market environment.
Historically, Bitcoin has closed down 6 times and up 5 times in December, and in the past 5 years, it has entered a bull market 4 times after Christmas.
In the 11 'December' markets in Bitcoin's history, there have been 6 instances of closing down and 5 instances of closing up. The largest increase occurred in December 2020, with a monthly increase of 46.92%. The largest decrease occurred in December 2013, with a monthly decrease of 34.81%.
However, it is worth noting that historically, every time Bitcoin has closed up in September, it has been able to rise until the end of the year (with consecutive increases in October, November, and December), and Bitcoin closed up 7.35% this September, marking the best performance in September in history.
Moreover, possibly due to the first quarter typically being the quarter when asset management companies make annual funding arrangements, in the past 5 years (2019-2023), there have been 4 years where a bull market emerged after Christmas, with only 2021 experiencing a decline after Christmas (the last bull peak).
Market sentiment is generally optimistic but mixed with caution. Many investors and traders are waiting for further policy signals or macroeconomic data to determine their next actions. The recent market adjustment is seen by some as a good entry opportunity, but others worry that it may be a sign of a bull market peak.
$btc
