Author: Brayden Lindrea, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Deng Tong, Jinse Finance
Asset management firm VanEck stated that if the U.S. establishes a reserve of 1 million bitcoins according to the bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, it could reduce its national debt by 35% over the next 24 years.
VanEck estimates that by 2049, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of bitcoin will reach 25%, hitting $42.3 million, while the CAGR of U.S. national debt will reach 5%, increasing from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion.
Matthew Sigel, VanEck's head of digital asset research, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz stated in a report on December 20: 'By 2049, this reserve could account for 35% of the national debt, offsetting about $42 trillion in debt.'
It is expected that from 2025 to 2049, U.S. national debt will increase as bitcoin reserves grow. Source: VanEck
"Optimistic" forecasts suggest that the 25% CAGR for bitcoin will start from a price point of $200,000 in 2025. The current trading price of bitcoin is $95,360, needing to more than double to reach the starting point indicated by VanEck.
A bitcoin price of $42.3 million would mean it accounts for about 18% of global financial assets—far higher than its current approximately 0.22% share of the $900 trillion market.
The estimated compound annual growth rate for U.S. national debt and bitcoin reserve holdings, as well as bitcoin value, is 25%. Source: VanEck
Donald Trump's new government proposed the idea of a bitcoin reserve, which pushed the price of bitcoin above six figures, but Senator Lummis's bill has yet to be reviewed by the Senate or House.
Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers claimed earlier this month that Trump could issue an executive order on his first day in office designating bitcoin as a reserve asset.
According to the Lummis bill, the United States could reallocate the 198,100 bitcoins it holds due to asset seizures, while the remaining 801,900 bitcoins could be financed through emergency support functions, by selling part of its $455 billion gold reserves in exchange for bitcoins, or both—none of which would require printing money or taxpayer funds, VanEck noted.
Sigel and Frankovitz stated that the adoption of bitcoin at the state, institutional, and corporate levels in the U.S. would also boost the compound annual growth rate estimates for bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded fund issuers.
Sigel explained in a post on X on December 21 that the member nations of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) could also influence bitcoin prices, leading to its increasing use as a currency.
They pointed out: 'For countries seeking to avoid dollar sanctions that are growing exponentially, bitcoin is likely to be widely used as a settlement currency for global trade.'
