Bitcoin (BTC) has entered the six-figure range, a price range that has now become the norm. However, higher prices seem to have become a 'certainty.' By carefully analyzing key on-chain data, we can provide deep insights into the health of the market, guiding investors in future price trends and helping to predict potential market peaks or upcoming corrections.
Let's take a look at these important indicators, which reveal the current cyclical stage of Bitcoin and potential price trends.

1. Terminal Price: Is this the end of the bull market or the starting point for a new high?
"Terminal Price" is an indicator composed of Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) and Bitcoin supply, used to predict the cyclical peak of Bitcoin. In short, CDD measures the activity of Bitcoin transactions, looking at both the holding duration and the number of Bitcoins involved in transactions. Currently, Bitcoin's terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and may further rise to $200,000 in the coming months.
This means that, despite Bitcoin having surpassed the $100,000 mark, the market may still be in a stage of active increase. However, the rise in terminal price also indicates that market activity is increasing, possibly nearing the peak of a bull market.

2. Puell multiple: Miner profitability recovery, does it suggest the bull market continues?
The Puell multiple measures miner profitability by comparing daily miner income with the moving average over the past 365 days. Currently, the Puell multiple has risen above 1, indicating a recovery in miner income. This change typically signals the later stages of a bull market cycle, and prices often accompany exponential increases. Historical data shows that each time it breaks above 1, Bitcoin prices usually experience a significant rise.

3. MVRV Z Score: The market still has room for growth, enthusiasm has not yet arrived.
The MVRV Z Score assesses whether the market is overheated by measuring the relationship between market value and realized value (the average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). The current MVRV Z Score is about 3.00, not yet entering the overheated red zone, indicating that the market still has room for growth. Although recent prices have reached new highs, the market is still far from the peak of enthusiasm based on the Z Score.

4. Active Address Sentiment: Market cooling, is the consolidation period already here?
The Active Address Sentiment indicator tracks changes in network addresses and compares them with price fluctuations. When the speed of price increases surpasses network activity, it indicates that the market may be entering an overbought phase. Data shows that after Bitcoin rapidly climbed from $50,000 to $100,000, market sentiment cooled, indicating that Bitcoin is currently in a healthy consolidation phase.
This cooling does not mean the market is about to crash; rather, it may be the foundation for long-term growth in the future.
5. Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR): Profit-taking increases, is the bull market nearing its end?
The SOPR indicator measures the profit situation in Bitcoin transactions. Current data indicates that profit-taking behavior has increased, which usually means the market may be entering the later stages of the cycle. This is also related to the increased use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivatives, as investors may turn from self-custody to ETFs in pursuit of convenience and tax advantages.

6. Value Days Destroyed (VDD): The market appears slightly overheated, but has not yet peaked.
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) has increased the weight of large holders, reflecting the behavior of these significant participants. The current VDD level shows the market is slightly overheated, which may be a precursor to market overheating. Historical data indicates that before the peak of the 2017 bull market, VDD also displayed overbought signals at an earlier stage.
7. Conclusion: Signs of the later stages of the bull market, still room for growth.
In summary, these on-chain data indicate that Bitcoin is gradually entering the later stages of a bull market. While some indicators suggest a possible cooling or slight overbought phenomenon in the short term, most data still point to strong upward potential during 2025. Key resistance levels may be between $150,000 and $200,000, while indicators like SOPR and VDD will provide clearer signals as we approach the cycle peak.
Insight into market rhythms is the beginning of wealth control! Follow Old Tan, plan ahead, and make the next peak belong to your account! Pay attention to Old Tan, and never let opportunities slip away!
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