Changing Dynamics in Historic Cycles

Conversely, while Bitcoin has shown some synergy with previous cycles, there are certain traits of changing dynamics in the current cycle. Bitcoin has historically reached new highs, on average, one year after its halving event.

This pattern was repeated in the 2015-2018 cycle, when Bitcoin's price spiked to a new peak in August 2017 after its halving in 2016.

Similarly, in the 2019-2022 cycle, its price surged to new highs in November 2021, one year after its halving event in 2020. However, this trend has been altered in the current cycle after BTC hit a new ATH in March before its halving in April.

This places two options before investors: Either the halving event is no longer a yardstick for Bitcoin's price trajectory, or BTC has yet to experience the post-halving growth from previous cycles.

BTC/USD weekly chart (Coinbase)