Recent market conditions are challenging, so I will share point analysis combined with GPT. I'll start with an ETH-related article; if you're interested, just mention the coin type, and I will analyze it. Click on the homepage to view $ETH
From the image, it can be seen that this is a 4-hour candlestick chart of Ethereum (ETH/USDT). Combining the information provided by the chart, here are the main observation points:
Key Data from the Chart:
Price Range:
Highest Price (High): 3442.89 USDT
Lowest Price (Low): 3398.01 USDT
Current Price: 3406.77 USDT (Real-time price shown on the chart)
Price Change: -0.99% (34.18 USDT decrease)
Amplitude: 1.30%
Trading Volume:
Current Trading Volume: Displayed as 230.95K.
Recently, there have been several large red trading volume bars, indicating significant selling pressure.
Price Trend:
The chart shows that Ethereum experienced an increase from the low point (around 2356 USDT) to a high of 4109.99 USDT before starting to pull back.
Currently in the corrective phase after a decline, attempting to rebound.
Market Sentiment:
Recent candlesticks show significant volatility, with more red candlesticks indicating strong selling pressure.
In the short term (especially around mid-December), the price experienced significant selling actions.
Technical Analysis (Preliminary Observation):
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Level: There may be some support around 3300 USDT currently.
Resistance Level: Previous high around 4109.99 USDT, short-term resistance may be in the range of 3600-3700 USDT.
Trading Volume Changes:
As the price pulls back from the high, trading volume increases, showing the market's reaction to selling pressure.
Current trading volume has decreased at the bottom, which may indicate that selling pressure is gradually weakening.
Overall Trend:
From the overall trend, the price has experienced a significant rise and is currently in an adjustment phase.
If the subsequent rebound cannot break through the previous resistance, it may further test lower levels.
The following is a Fibonacci retracement analysis based on the chart:
1. Identify Key Ranges
Select the most significant recent price fluctuation from the chart as a benchmark:
Starting Point (Low): 2356 USDT (around early November position)
Ending Point (High): 4109.99 USDT (around mid-November position)
This phase is the main upward trend for Ethereum recently, and Fibonacci retracement can be used to observe support levels during pullbacks.
2. Key Fibonacci Retracement Ratios
Common retracement levels include 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786, with corresponding key prices as follows:
0.236 Retracement Level: 3703.75 USDT
0.382 Retracement Level: 3500.79 USDT
0.5 Retracement Level: 3233 USDT
0.618 Retracement Level: 2965.21 USDT
0.786 Retracement Level: 2594.42 USDT
3. Observe Current Price Position
Current price is approximately 3406.77 USDT, key points to observe:
The price has fallen below the 0.236 (3703.75 USDT) retracement level, indicating a weaker upward trend in the short term.
Current price is close to the 0.382 (3500.79 USDT) retracement level, where there may be some support.
If the price continues to decline, 0.5 (3233 USDT) is a strong support level, usually regarded as an important level for pullbacks.
0.618 (2965.21 USDT) is an important support level in the golden ratio; if the price reaches this level, the market may experience a strong rebound.
4. Resistance Level Analysis
Main resistance during short-term rebounds may concentrate at:
Around 3700 USDT (0.236 retracement level): Short-term resistance.
4100 USDT (previous high): Strong resistance, the price needs strong buying support to break through.
5. Combining Trading Volume and Market Sentiment
Recent Trading Volume Analysis: As the chart shows, recent trading volume increased when the price fell, indicating that the bears are in control. If there are signals of increased volume during key retracement levels (such as 3233 USDT or 2965 USDT), it may indicate a trend reversal.
Market Sentiment: It is important to pay attention to the overall market sentiment towards Ethereum, especially the impact of Bitcoin (BTC) trends and macro market factors.
Summary and Recommendations
Short-term Support Levels: 3500 USDT (near current price) and 3233 USDT (0.5 retracement level).
Strong Support Level: 2965 USDT (0.618 retracement level).
Resistance Levels: 3700 USDT and 4100 USDT.
If the price cannot hold above the 0.5 retracement level (3233 USDT), it may further test the 0.618 retracement level (2965 USDT).