Current situation:
Current price: $98,839.92.
The market finds support in the key Fibonacci correction zone and shows increased volatility. The Ichimoku cloud acts as an indicator of the nearest support and resistance levels, and volumes indicate indecision of market participants.
Key support and resistance levels:
Support:
$97,594: lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. Critical level providing short-term support.
$97,232 – $96,861: area of increased buyer interest corresponding to key Fibonacci retracement levels (0.62–0.705).
$95,572: level 1.0 on the Fibonacci, as well as the zone of large liquidations.
$92,871: expansion 1.618 on the Fibonacci may become the zone of final liquidity absorption.
Resistance:
$99,942: zone of volume consolidation and current resistance level.
$101,121 – $102,651: range including levels -0.27 and -0.62 on the Fibonacci, where the closing of short positions is likely.
$104,311: long-term target at level -1.0 on the Fibonacci.
Scenarios of events:
1. Long scenario (probability: 55%):
Conditions for implementation:
The price holds the range $97,232 – $96,861, confirming the presence of buyers in a key liquidity zone.
RSI moves above 55, and the increase in volumes confirms the activity of bulls.
Entry points:
$97,594 – $98,179: entry after bouncing from the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud and EMA 20.
$96,861: entry at deep correction, confirmed by volumes.
Targets:
$99,942: first target at the current resistance.
$101,121: intermediate target (-0.27 on the Fibonacci).
$104,311: long-term target (-1.0 on the Fibonacci).
Risk management:
Stop-loss: below $96,500 to limit losses in case of a break of the support zone.
2. Short scenario (probability: 45%):
Conditions for implementation:
The price breaks $96,861 and consolidates below, opening the way for further decline.
RSI drops below 45, and increased volumes confirm the strength of sellers.
Entry points:
$99,942 – $100,151: entry after retesting resistance.
$96,861: entry upon breaking key support.
Targets:
$95,572: first target in the liquidation zone and 1.0 level on the Fibonacci.
$92,871: second target (expansion 1.618 on the Fibonacci).
Risk management:
Stop-loss: above $97,757 to minimize losses if the price returns to resistance.
Conclusions and recommendations:
Base scenario: Long with a probability of 55%.
To confirm the strength of buyers, it is necessary to hold the zone $97,232 – $96,861 and consolidate the price above $99,942.
The realization of the scenario may lead to growth up to $104,311.
Short: Upon breaking $96,861, the price is likely to rush to $95,572 and below, to $92,871.
Overall approach: Focus on volume and liquidity levels. Actively monitor RSI and volumes to confirm the strength of the movement.
Recommendation:
The position should be carefully calculated in size. At this stage, a cautious long with entry points at $97,594 – $98,179 is preferred. #BTC
